29 May, 03:25 PM
Belarus dictator Lukashenko could use his ‘people’s militia’ against Putin, claims expert
On NV Radio, foreign affairs expert Ivan Yakovina spoke about what could have spurred Lukashenko towards this move, and under what circumstances these troops could be turned against Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
“Days ago, Lukashenko announced the creation of southern military command, and the deployment of some troops to the Ukrainian border. I suspect he’s trying to intimidate Ukraine with the prospect of invasion.
“(But) he’s unlikely to send them in, since even at the very beginning of the war, when everyone agreed that odds were not in our favor, Lukashenko still decided not to commit the Belarussian military to the invasion. As any more-or-less independent observer would clearly see, Lukashenko realizes that Putin has zero chance of victory in Ukraine.
“Even if Putin manages to seize Luhansk oblast, he won’t be victorious. That’s why, it seems to me, Lukashenko is starting to gradually slide away from Putin. I’ve talked about this before, but now we have evidence that he might be getting ready to pull some shenanigans.
“Lukashenko intends to create a militia in Belarus. I’m leaning towards suspecting he’s eyeing the possibility of jumping ships – abandoning Putin and trying to get friendly with the West. That’s why he needs a militia that could quickly be armed, should someone invade Belarus.
“Who could that be? I think, Lukashenko is most afraid of Putin. Should he abandon his Kremlin patron, Russian troops would enter Belarus and pursue regime change, installing a figurehead in place of the discarded Lukashenko.
“So, in order to safeguard against ‘brotherly’ Russia, Lukashenko might have decided to get himself this militia force, just in case Putin decides to replace the Belarussian leader.
“This force won’t be of much use against Ukraine. If they are ordered to cross the border and attack Ukraine, these militiamen would immediately switch sides. It could only be effective against Russia.
“Why would Lukashenko need protection against Moscow? Well, since Russia keeps talking about holding a referendum this fall, which would incorporate Belarus into Russia proper, along with ‘L/DPR,’ Kherson, and South Ossetia. Lukashenka would rather use this militia to wage war on Putin, than agree to get subsumed by Russia – no matter what he would be promised in return.”