Opinion

22 November 2022, 02:27 PM

Why the West is persistently pushing Ukraine towards a formula of understanding with Russia

Volodymyr Ohryzko

Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister (2007−2009)

It most likely has to do with changing the top of the regime.

Nothing extraordinary is happening these days, which means waiting for Russia to stop its crimes is naive. It will continue them until its last breath, and we, unfortunately, only need to have patience and appropriate weapons, and to use them effectively.

Our partners, who believe that there are grounds for seeking and finding some kind of formula of mutual understanding with Russia, delicately but persistently want to impose a different position on us. That's why all this shuttle diplomacy is happening, with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan arriving, then CIA Director William Burns, then with General Mark Milley suddenly saying rather uncharacteristic things, and then when statements by Erdogan or Macron appear. All this falls into one clear line: the West currently does not want the rapid collapse of Russia.

The West behaved in the same way in relation to the USSR. The leaders of the West did not want it to disintegrate because they believed that it would be much easier to manage this territory as a whole.

The only positive in this regard is that the development of history does not depend on the opinion of one politician or another, for there have been  things determined by the very course of this history. Remember that neither Bush Sr. nor Margaret Thatcher nor Helmut Kohl wanted the collapse of the USSR, and they urged everything be done to preserve it. And where is the USSR now?! In the pages of history, because it could not survive and continue existing.

They continue to cling to the theory that they will replace Putin with someone else and something will change in Russia.

The same, I am convinced, awaits the Russian Federation. But they don't want to admit this today in the West. But nothing will change there, because it is necessary there to change the whole system, not just the surname of the next usurper. The West has not yet arrived at this simple idea. And that is why they come up with what we observe today. They don't give Ukraine the weapons that could speed up Russia’s military defeat, and then its political collapse, because in Russia one thing is directly connected with the other.

There are patterns that will prevail one way or another. The only question is how much we will pay for it. I am afraid that we will pay dearly.

The fact that people who are conducting secret or open negotiations with the West are ready to get rid of Putin in exchange for the preservation of their power and property is already, as they say, an open secret. Of course it is. A lot is being done behind Putin's back, which, of course, he is not informed about. But a group of people who stand on the side or above or below Putin (it does not matter), who will lose a lot from the current absolutely catastrophic situation for Russia, will definitely think about how to exchange Putin for their security, for further financial gain, and to return to their previous paradise life in the West. Therefore, I am more than convinced that these non-public negotiations have been going on for a long time. The stakes are quite high. They are, most likely, about changing the top of the regime. But the West’s biggest problem is that it does not understand that changing the top does not change the system. After a new usurper takes power, it will not be long before we return to a situation similar to today. It will not be tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, but rather take years. That's why myopic Western politics insists on it. Considering, well, it won't be during my term of office, I won't be a minister, prime minister or president then, and let them figure it out. This primitive logic leads to the tragedies and catastrophes that we are all experiencing today. If Angela Merkel or Nicolas Sarkozy or Barack Obama had thought as leaders of key Western countries should think about the future, there would be no Syria, no 2014 war in Ukraine, and no February 24, 2022. But they remained peacekeepers. Obama became a Nobel laureate in the field of peace. Now we are drinking from this bitter cup of Obama's peace, as well as Merkel's. This, unfortunately, is the logic of current events.

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