EBRD forecasts rise in Ukraine’s GDP of 1% in 2023

16 February, 06:26 PM
EBRD expects a slight growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 (Photo:ebrd.com)

EBRD expects a slight growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2023 (Photo:ebrd.com)

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts a rise in Ukraine’s GDP only by 1% in 2023, down from the 8% forecast last September, the agency reported on Feb. 16.

According to the EBRD, the region of eastern Europe and the Caucasus is facing enormous uncertainty in the short term because of the ongoing war on Ukraine.

“In 2023, under the assumption that combat activities in Ukraine will remain limited to the current territory, which pre-war generated less than 20% of GDP, it is likely that real output will stabilise at around 70% of the 2021 level,” the report says.

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The EBRD believes that Ukraine’s economy will continue to be heavily affected by wartime considerations.

“Unless there is a significant strategic change on the ground, growth in Ukraine’s GDP in 2024 is likely to be sluggish, but positive at least (3% growth),” reads the report.

“Inflation throughout the region may also remain above target rates, especially in Ukraine and Moldova where the normalisation path is likely to be longer.”

Earlier on Jan. 20, Fitch Ratings affirmed Ukraine’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘CC.’

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