Prolonged war will cut Ukraine’s GDP by 39%

17 May, 05:43 PM
Tomas Fiala, CEO of investment firm Dragon Capital (Photo:dragon-capital.com)

Tomas Fiala, CEO of investment firm Dragon Capital (Photo:dragon-capital.com)

According to Tomas Fiala, CEO of investment firm Dragon Capital (and the publisher of NV), Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 will fall by 39% if the war continues throughout the year, and by 20% – if a truce is signed in near future, Ukrainian news agency Interfax-Ukraine reported on May 17.

Fiala made the forecast at the Global Outlook: Economic Frontline conference, hosted by the European Business Association.

“This will be a major hit to (Ukraine’s) economy – it will lose 39% of its GPD, should the war last the entire year with no truce,” said Fiala.

“With a truce, we expect the economy to contract by 20%.”

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In terms of stability of the hryvnia, Fiala said that coming devaluation won’t be “too dramatic” and inflation is expected to settle at around 20% in 2022.

According to him Dragon Capital doesn’t expect a return on its investments this year, but intends to bump up the salaries of its employees, fol-lowing the hit they took after the invasion.

“Three of our warehouses were bombed and have completely burnt down,” Fiala added.

Thanks to the successes of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Dragon Capital has since managed to resume its operations.

“In general, everything’s operational across Ukraine, even in the east,” said the CEO.

“Capacities vary: the weakest levels of economic activity are at 30-40%, but mostly (we’re) back to 70% of pre-war levels.”

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