Assault from Belarus ‘possible today or tomorrow,’ but only in theory, says Ponomarenko

24 December 2022, 08:27 PM
Military historian Roman Ponomarenko estimated the probability of an offensive from Belarus in the near future (Photo:Міноборони Білорусі/Telegram)

Military historian Roman Ponomarenko estimated the probability of an offensive from Belarus in the near future (Photo:Міноборони Білорусі/Telegram)

Ukrainian military historian Roman Ponomarenko talked about the Belarusian military’s readiness to assault Ukraine from the north in an interview with Radio NV on Dec. 24.

"If we consider the technical site of the problem, they can start the offensive if not today then tomorrow,” Ponomarenko said.

“Conventionally, they have some military forces. According to various estimates, there are from 70,000 to 100,000 troops. They have military equipment and ammunition. On paper, they have already had manpower and all they technically need for the offensive.”

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However, the Russian-Belarusian formation has some problems that prevent it from invading Ukraine from the north.

"They miss the main thing — they miss coherence. They don't have meticulously prepared plans, as well as the possibility to bring plans to life as it was supposed."

The historian believes that since the Soviet Union times the Russians have been bound to orders and don't show initiative. According to him, this prevents the Kremlin from achieving its goals.

"Everything is ready on paper, but is it really ready?” Ponomarenko added.

“Have they prepared plans? Are they motivated enough? Are they trained? Are their units coordinated? If you were to send 50,000 unprepared mobilised people, it would be just a crowd. They won't become military units on combat duty."

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