CIT analyst says why Ukrainian troops may go on the offensive as winter sets in

27 November 2022, 03:06 PM
Ukrainian military on the front line (Photo:Roma Batkovich / Facebook)

Ukrainian military on the front line (Photo:Roma Batkovich / Facebook)

Ukrainian forces are to intensify their offensive activities in the east of Ukraine in the coming days, Kyrylo Mykhailov, a researcher from the Conflict Intelligence Team – an open-source intelligence research organization, said in an interview with NV Radio on Nov. 27.

"The situation will change because of the weather in the first place,” Mykhailov said.

“Near Kreminna and Svatova the temperature will drop below zero, so all the (supply) roads and off-road terrains will freeze and allow movement of military equipment and trucks to provide ammunition and other supplies. That’s how Ukraine will be able to reactivate its offense at the frontline."

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Mykhailov said he believes fighting could continue throughout the winter months – as the nearly nine-year-long history of Russia’s war on Ukraine shows.

"During World War Two offensive actions intensified in winter in these regions. The advantage was with the side that was better prepared for winter conditions,” Mykhailov said.

“For example, in the winter of 1941-1942 it was the Soviet Union's troops that had better winter clothes and ammunition. Currently it could be Ukrainian troops, supported by the Western countries and volunteer movements in Ukraine.

“They are supplied much better than the Russian troops. So, it is the Ukrainian troops who will have the advantage on their side. I would expect them to intensify their offensive actions.”

The U.S. Institute for the Study of War has also forecast an overall increase in the pace of operations because of near-or-below-freezing daily highs in the coming week, and the solidifying of the ground.

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