Expert explains first steps toward gaining balance of power in Russia-Ukraine war

8 August 2022, 10:23 PM
Ukrainian MLRS on the front (Photo:General Staff)

Ukrainian MLRS on the front (Photo:General Staff)

The full return of the Donbas and the blockading of Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea – with the destruction of the Kerch bridge – should be the first steps on the path to victory for Ukraine, candidate of historical sciences and journalist Serhii Hromenko told Radio NV on Aug. 8.

"Actually, we need now to decide on the criteria, whether we’re talking only about a military victory – the defeat of the Russian troops, which is already looming – or whether we’re talking about a strategic victory – about a better post-war world,” Hromenko said.

“So, it's no secret that condition No. 1 is Russia’s inability to attack Ukraine, through Ukraine being so well armed that it would be considered suicide even in Russia.”

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Hromenko said the return of all mainland territories and the establishment of a blockade of the Russian-occupied Crimea with the destruction of the so-called Kerch bridge would be the first step toward a Ukrainian victory.

“Condition No. 1 is at least a return to the so-called ‘borders,’ to the contact line as of Feb. 23, 2022,” the expert said.

“But it’s also necessary to understand that this will not happen in reality. If we’re talking about the Donbas, there is no longer a contact line where you can stop and say: that’s it, we’ve got there. In fact, this is not the case: Ukrainian troops will advance in the Donbas to the very border of Russia.”

Hromenko said that the situation with the Crimea was more difficult.

“I won’t predict the possibility of an attack on a territory that Russia considers ‘definitely its own,’ this is not a timely question, at least not today,” he said.

“This would actually be the achievement of not a balance (of power), but, let’s say a draw – the return of the entire Donbas and a complete blockade of the Crimea, possibly with the destruction of the bridge.”

Hromenko believes a complete victory would require the destruction of the Russian military machine on the territories bordering Ukraine.

“To have a victory means sinking the (Russian) Black Sea Fleet, Ukrainian flags over Sevastopol, panic and the collapse of the military machine on the Russian border territories and, of course, a change of regime in Belarus so that Russian troops are not deployed there."

Earlier Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia had not abandoned the idea of a full occupation of Ukraine.

“In general, they did not give up (their plans for) the ikncorporation of our state within their state… And they’ve had those plans for many years,” Zelenskyy told CNN in an interview.

The Ukrainian president also urged G7 leaders to do their utmost to help end Russia’s invasion by the end of the year. According to Zelenskyy, if the war lasts until winter, there is a risk of it continuing long in the future.

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