Putin facing tough choice due to rivalry between Defense Ministry and Prigozhin — UK Intelligence
Russia needs a new mobilization to continue the war (Photo:ГУР МО)
Russia’s military has likely already deployed nearly all of its mobilized troops in Ukraine, so now the Kremlin faces the difficult choice of either continuing to deplete its forces and curtail its war aims, or conduct a new mobilization, UK Defense Intelligence wrote in its latest summary on Twitter on Feb. 11.
The UK analysts said that the need for a new mobilization to continue the war is also connected with the fact that recently the founder of the Wagner private mercenary group, the Putin oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced an end to the recruitment of Russian prisoners, who were replenishing the ranks of the occupying army.
Thus, “the data from the Russian Federal Penal Service had already suggested a drop-off in the rate of prisoner recruitment since December 2022. News of the harsh realities of Wagner service in Ukraine has probably filtered through to inmates and reduced the number of volunteers,” the analysts wrote.
UK intelligence wrote that direct competition between Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation was probably the key factor in the suspension of the mass recruitment of Russian prisoners at Wagner's PMK.
“A key factor in the termination of the scheme is likely increasingly direct rivalry between the Russian Ministry of Defense and Wagner,” U.K. Intel added. “The regular Russian military has likely now also deployed the vast majority of the reservists called up under ‘partial mobilization.’”
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