Returning to pre-invasion borders will merely freeze the conflict in Ukraine, analyst says
An aerial view of the ruined city of Bakhmut, May 21, 2023 (Photo:Press service of the 93rd separate mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Kholo/Handout via Reuters)
The ultimate
conclusion of the war in Ukraine will shape the security not only of Europe
but also of the Indo-Pacific region, James Sherr, an Associate Fellow at
Chatham House and speaker at the Kyiv Security Forum, told NV on May 24.
If Ukrainians push Russian troops back to the borders of Feb. 24, 2022, and halt there, it would lead to a state of 'neither war nor peace' and lay the foundation for future aggression, warns Sherr.
"The danger will increase further if Ukraine's Western partners declare 'mission accomplished' and move on to other issues," he adds.
Only an ultimate victory, involving the removal of Russian forces from the entirety of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory, would allow for a secure and prosperous future for Europe. If such a victory does not facilitate a regime change within Russia, the only viable means to achieve that would be through military force.
Sherr also notes that China is keenly monitoring the events in Ukraine. While Russia's decisive defeat would cool Beijing's ambitions, an unstable peace in Ukraine, on the other hand, would hasten potential aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.
If the war concludes without the liberation of all Ukrainian territories, this would also divert U.S. attention away from Ukraine and Europe overall, the researcher predicts.
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