Russia currently isn't able to equip its conscripts with weapons and equipment, and it will struggle to do so even more if new wave of mobilization is being announced, Ukrainian military intelligence believes.
Ukrainian intelligence estimates the first wave of mobilization in Russia at about 315,000, Ukraine's deputy military intelligence chief, Vadym Skibitsky, said in an interview with the Ukrainian news platform Ukrinform on Jan. 23.
As for now, Russia is running a mobilization campaign in the occupied part of Ukrainian Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, he said.
He said mobilization is ongoing in Russia, as well as there is a directive not to let those who are subject to it go abroad, even if this has not officially been announced.
"The Russians aren't producing (weapons) in the amount they are losing them,” Skibitsky said.
“Moscow has begun demothballing weapons and vehicles that were abandoned for 30 years or more, so it needs repair and maintenance work. We know that such a situation has occurred, for example, in the 2nd Division of the 1st Tank Army. They were supposed to be equipped on Dec. 1, but this only happened on Jan. 1. So, they had to wait for equipment that is not to be manufactured by Russia for a whole month.”
Skibitsky said Russia would struggle even more to equip 500,000 more conscripted soldiers.
Earlier, Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that Russia was going to announce a new wave of mobilization on Jan. 5, 2023.
Also, the Kremlin denied reports that restrictions on men drafted to military service on going abroad were imposed on Jan. 9.
Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, addressed the Russian conscripts and persons liable for military service, saying that the regime of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was going to impose martial law and close the border for men of military age, amid huge Russian losses in the war and a new wave of mobilization.