Russia lacks forces and means to invade from Belarus in coming weeks – Ukraine’s intel

18 February, 07:24 PM
In the next two or three weeks, the Russians do not have the strength and means to invade Belarus (Photo:Ministry of Internal Affairs)

In the next two or three weeks, the Russians do not have the strength and means to invade Belarus (Photo:Ministry of Internal Affairs)

Ukraine's military intelligence is monitoring Russian troops in Belarus around the clock, as well as observing Russia's attempts to fully involve Belarusians in the war against Ukraine, a spokesperson for the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine or HUR has said.

HUR spokesperson Andriy Chernyak told UK television’s ITV news on Feb. 18, that the Belarusians are trying hard not to get dragged into Russia’s war against Ukraine.

"We see that Belarus seems to be supporting Russia and at the same time is trying by all means to refrain from joining the war," Chernyak said.

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“We also see how much pressure Russia is putting on them.”

According to Ukrainian intel, the Belarusian military will be forced to obey Lukashenko's orders and may be involved in another invasion of Ukraine from the north, Chernyak added.

"However, in the next two to three weeks, the Russians have neither the forces nor the means to invade from the territory of Belarus," the HUR representative said.

In February last year, Belarusian dictator Alexnder Lukashenko allowed Russian ground forces to attack Ukraine through his country on two axes of advance – one on either side of the Dnipro River – as Russia attempted a pincer attack to capture the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and force a regime change.

That attack failed, and the defeated Russian army had to retreat from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts at the end of March and the beginning of April.

Since then, Lukashenko has allowed the Russian to launch missile attacks on Ukraine from his territory, and helped the regime of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin by allowing the Russian military to use Belarusian training facilities.

Belarus has also formed a “joint grouping” of military forces with Russia. Its military regularly maneuvers close to the border with Ukraine, in order to tie up some of Ukraine’s forces in protecting the country’s northern flank.

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