Russia’s battlefield gains slow as Kremlin presses Donbas ultimatum — ISW
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with Ukrainian soldiers near the front line in eastern Ukraine on May 8, 2026. (Photo: REUTERS)
Moscow continues to demand that Ukrainian troops withdraw
from the parts of Donbas still under Ukrainian control as a condition for a
lasting ceasefire, even as Russian forces made slower gains in spring 2026 than
they did in 2025, when the Kremlin began pushing the ultimatum more
aggressively, the Institute for the Study of War said
in a May 8 analysis.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin
officials began increasing pressure on Ukraine to give up territory in Donetsk
Oblast in early 2025, when battlefield conditions were “favorable” for Russian
forces.
Since then, Ukraine’s military has raised the economic,
manpower and equipment costs of Russia’s war. Ukraine’s Defense Forces have
expanded the range, scale and intensity of strikes on Russian oil
infrastructure and military facilities. In early 2026, Ukrainian forces
significantly intensified strikes at medium range against Russian logistics,
military equipment and personnel, weakening Russia’s ability to conduct
offensive operations.
Russian advances on the front line slowed to an average of
2.9 square kilometers per day in the first four months of 2026, and Russian
forces lost more territory than they gained in April 2026, ISW said. At the
same time, Russian troops are struggling with rising casualties, which recently
exceeded the army’s recruitment rate.
Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said on May 7 that another round of
trilateral talks between the United States, Ukraine and Russia currently “makes
no sense” because Ukraine must take “one serious step” toward withdrawing its
troops from the part of Donetsk Oblast still under Ukrainian control. ISW said
the Kremlin is trying to create a false sense of political urgency around
territorial concessions and justify its refusal to take part in peace talks,
even though stalled battlefield gains leave Moscow in a weaker position to
extract major political concessions.
Ukrainian forces are expected to keep inflicting heavy
losses on Russian troops during their spring and summer offensive, including in
Donetsk Oblast, where Moscow has failed to make major operational gains.
ISW also assessed that surrendering the remaining
Ukrainian-held territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts would give Russia
control of the so-called fortress belt — a series of fortified cities that have
formed the backbone of Ukraine’s defense in the region since 2014. The demand
also does not guarantee a peace deal, the analysis said.
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