Russia to use Belarusian defense industry to support protracted war – ISW
Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko at a meeting at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence near Moscow, Russia, February 17, 2023 (Photo:Sputnik / Vladimir Astapkovich / Kremlin via REUTERS)
Moscow intends to absorb elements of the Belarusian defense industry as part of efforts to re-equip its army to support a prolonged war against Ukraine, the analysts of the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in their latest report on Feb. 17.
The Institute’s experts point out that self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, during a meeting with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin on Feb. 17 in Moscow, said that Belarus was ready to produce Su-25 attack aircraft for the Russian military with the support of Russian technology.
Lukashenko also stated that Belarus' state-owned Minsk Automobile Plant had begun producing components for Russia's KAMAZ trucks and expressed readiness to help Moscow a produce electronic components to replace lost Western imports.
In addition, Lukashenko said that Belarus is 100% fulfilling the unspecified agreements on defense and security cooperation that Belarus and Russia agreed on "three months ago."
The ISW believes that the Kremlin will make more active use of elements of the Belarusian defense capabilities as Putin seeks to rebuild Russia's defense capabilities to support the ongoing war against Ukraine.
Earlier, Russian troops similarly began using Belarusian training grounds and instructors to train mobilized Russians to compensate for their own deteriorating training capacity.
"Additional Su-25s and truck parts are likely not critical material for the success of Russia’s long-term war effort," the analysts argue.
“The Kremlin may commandeer Belarusian factories and retool them to produce critical materiel that the Russian military needs.”
The Institute believes that the Russians may also try to repurpose Russian factories that are currently involved in or equipped for the production of Su-25s and trucks to produce equipment in direr need.
Analysts also recall that during his meeting with Putin, Lukashenko confirmed that Belarus has implemented most of the integration programs into the Union State, including customs and tax programs, which the Belarusian dictator had previously resisted since at least 2019.
According to ISW, Lukashenko, by making such small concessions that he had blocked for years, is likely paying the price for his refusal to accept Putin's broader demand for Belarusian troops to participate in the invasion of Ukraine.
"Lukashenko’s belated concessions and continued refusal to commit Belarusian forces to the Russian invasion indicate Lukashenko’s determination to keep Belarusian forces from directly participating in the Russian war," the institute’s experts said.
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