Russia is planning to use newly mobilised soldiers in its offensive operations in spring and summer, Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine’s deputy military intelligence chief, said in an interview with UK newspaper the Guardian on Jan. 6.
Ukraine’s military intelligence believes it takes about two months for the enemy to train new military units, and Russia's success depends on the quality of training and equipment provided.
"They are putting their emphasis on numbers of men and equipment and hoping to overwhelm our side," Skibitsky said.
Ukrainian intelligence claimed that Russia plans to gain 500,000 soldiers in a new wave of mobilisation.
"We expect them to conduct offensives in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, as well as possibly Zaporizhzhya, but to defend in Kherson and Crimea. This is the number of men they will need for such a task," he said.
The intelligence's representative also stressed the importance of the continued supply of western ammunition and weaponry to equip the new reserve units Ukraine is preparing.
"If Russia loses this time around, then Putin will collapse," Skibitsky said.
At the end of December, Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, said Russia would renew its mobilisation on Jan. 5, 2023.
Oleksii Reznikov, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine, addressed the Russian conscripts and persons liable for military service, saying that Vladimir Putin's regime was going to impose military law and close the border for men of military age amid Russian huge losses in the war and a new wave of mobilisation.
Later, Ukrainian intelligence said the Russian mobilisation may begin on Jan. 15. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military’s General Staff believes it will begin in January or February 2023, and the Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine Hanna Malyar said the second wave of mobilisation in Russia will take place in the first quarter of 2023.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia expects to mobilise as many as 500,000 men, in addition to the 300,000 called up erlier.
Russia still denies it is preparing for a second wave of mobilisation, Putin even describing such a move as "pointless."
However, the Kremlin also denied earlier that it had plans to order a mobilization — until the so-called "partial mobilisation" was officially announced in October.