Pace of Russian offensive to decrease significantly in coming weeks, ISW believes

24 June, 01:18 PM
Russian soldier (Photo:REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko)

Russian soldier (Photo:REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko)

The assault on Lysychansk will not give Russia a decisive advantage in the war, nor will the capture of Severodonetsk, said the U.S.-based conflict think tank the Institute for the Study of War in their daily update on June 23.

The ISW predicts that Russian offensive operations in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region will stall over the next few weeks, which will allow Ukrainian defenders to launch prudent counteroffensives.

ISW analysts note that over the past few days, Russian troops have made significant progress in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, but Ukrainian forces have largely achieved their goal in battle, slowing the Russian offensive.

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According to experts, the temporary loss of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk will not be a pivotal point in the war.

Russian troops have probably approached the southern outskirts of Lysychansk and strengthened their groupings around Severodonetsk to complete the capture of the two cities in Luhansk Oblast, the ISW writes. These achievements are unlikely to give Russian forces a decisive edge in further operations in Ukraine and will further degrade Russia's capabilities.

The analysts also add that Belarusian forces are conducting mobilization exercises along the Ukrainian border, but are unlikely to go to war in Ukraine due to their weak capabilities and the negative internal consequences of involvement on the side of Russia.

The invaders are persisting with attempts to surround Ukrainian groupings in Hirske and Zolote, and are likely attempting to take control of these settlements, ISW analysts say.

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