Ukraine warned of serious power shortages this winter if Russian strikes intensify
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Power outages are returning to Ukraine (Photo: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)
Ukraine could face one of the toughest winters yet for its power system, as even generating capacity restored before the heating season remains vulnerable to Russian strikes, and a major wave of attacks could leave the country with a serious electricity shortage, energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Industry Research Center, said in an interview with Radio NV on June 30.
According to him, it is impossible to fully solve the problem of a winter power deficit. Ukraine continues to restore damaged generation and is preparing to maximize electricity imports from Europe, but that may still prove insufficient if Russia again focuses its attacks on energy infrastructure.
“I’ll tell you honestly — in no way,” Kharchenko said. “Of course, we will restore as much available capacity as possible and prepare for the maximum possible imports from Europe during the winter period.”
He said coal- and gas-fired power plants are likely to remain the main targets of Russian attacks and that it is practically impossible to guarantee their reliable protection.
Kharchenko said energy workers are already carrying out large-scale restoration work and that the needed investment in repairs was directed in advance. Still, even restored generation can come under attack again.
“Unfortunately, I fear that we will get through this winter under conditions of a fairly serious electricity deficit. We have not yet built enough new distributed generation facilities,” he said.
The expert said projects to build distributed generation are moving forward actively, but their current scale is still not enough to fully offset possible losses of large power plants.
At the same time, Kharchenko gave a positive assessment of preparations by the state and local authorities for the heating season. He said the main focus now is not only on preserving electricity supply, but also on ensuring heating systems can keep working even during power outages.
“We have more or less learned how to survive winter without electricity,” he said. “The issue is making sure heating remains available even in the absence of power. I can see that active work is underway on this.”
Efforts to expand distributed generation at the local level have increased significantly, he added. Relevant projects are being implemented in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, and other cities. Municipalities, together with private investors, international donors and the government, are bringing new energy capacity online to strengthen the resilience of the power system.
Kharchenko also pointed to stronger protection of critical infrastructure. According to him, systematic work on building physical protective structures for key energy facilities has accelerated noticeably, including thanks to the Restoration Agency.
At the same time, he acknowledged that many problems remain, including a lack of funding, resources, experience in implementing large infrastructure projects, and some delayed management decisions.
Even so, he said overall progress in preparations for next winter is much stronger than it was a year ago.
“If we compare the level of activity a year ago and now, then on a 25-point scale, if it was 5 a year ago, now it is 15,” Kharchenko said. “Of course, it could be much better, but the work has become much more active and purposeful.”
Earlier, authorities reported that because of a significant increase in electricity consumption caused by hot weather, rolling blackout schedules were being introduced across all regions of Ukraine on June 30.
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