The Ukrainian army will have the upper hand over Russian forces in winter, Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) analyst Kyrylo Mykhailov said in an interview with NV Radio on Sept. 5.
According to Mykhailov, audio intercepts of calls between Russian troops suggest Moscow’s mobilized “volunteer” force is facing an acute shortage of proper winter gear.
“I don’t think the Russian army is capable of addressing this issue quickly enough,” said Mykhailov.
“Naturally, some assistance will come from Russian volunteers, but we must realize their movement is much smaller than the Ukrainian one, and cannot adequately supply their army.”
Any combat operations are made more difficult to execute in wintertime, Mykhailov added. The Ukrainian army, however, is receiving winter gear and equipment from “both international partners and Ukrainian civilians,” and would have a “certain advantage” over Russian forces.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, this fall will be decisive for how the war unfolds, but fighting is likely to continue through winter, as well.