Zelensky still leads in presidential polls, although his popularity has plunged

20 December 2021, 12:00 PM

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains the leading candidate for president, according to a survey released by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on Dec. 20.

Had presidential elections been held in the near future, up to 17 percent of respondents who intend to vote, and 27.6 percent of those who have made up their mind who to vote for, would have supported the incumbent president.

Zelensky won the presidency with a whopping 73 percent of the vote in April 2019, following a run-off election with incumbent former President Petro Poroshenko, who took only 24 percent of the vote.

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Another 9.9 percent and 16 percent respectively would now vote for Poroshenko, the leader of the European Solidarity Party.

Co-chair of the Opposition Platform – For Life Party Yuriy Boyko, (5.8 percent and 9.4 percent), and the leader of the Batkivshchyna Party, Yulia Tymoshenko (5.5 percent and 9 percent), are practically tied for third place.

Another 4.1 percent and 6.6 percent of voters would opt for the leader of the Syla i Chest (Strength and Honor) Party, led by former Security Service of Ukraine chief Ihor Smeshko, while 3.7 percent and 5.9 percent would cast their ballots for ex-Chairman of Ukraine’s Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, Dmytro Razumkov.

At the same time, pro-Russian Ukrainian politician and media mogul Yevgeniy Murayev would gain 3.0 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, and the leader of the Radical Party, Oleh Liashko 2.5 percent and 4.1 percent.

Other politicians scored below 2 percent.

A model-based analysis of the run-off shows Zelensky winning in pair-ups with all of his major rivals, namely Poroshenko (55.7 percent versus 44.3 percent), Boyko (60.2 percent versus 39.8 percent), Razumkov (53.2 percent versus 46.8 percent), and Tymoshenko (51.6 percent versus 48.4 percent).

While Poroshenko is Zelensky’s closest rival, Tymoshenko would win if paired with Poroshenko (54.8 percent vs 45.2 percent).

The survey was conducted on Dec. 9-17 through personal formalized (face-to-face) interviews with the use of tablet computers (CAPI, computer-assisted personal interviews).

The study involved 2,025 respondents in 109 settlements across Ukraine with the exception of Russian-occupied Crimea and non-government-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

The margin of error (with a probability of 0.95 and with a design effect of 1.5) does not exceed 3.3 percent for indicators close to 50 percent, 2.9 percent for indicators close to 25 percent, 2.2 percent for indicators close to 12 percent, and 1.5 percent for indicators close to 5 percent.

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