A critical moment in the war. Why China started to talk about the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine
Xi Jinping (Photo:REUTERS/Tingshu Wang)
The situation is changing, and China's only real support is being defeated
China started talking about the earliest possible start of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. What prompted it to do that? Here, China thinks more about being beloved, and I will try to explain what I mean. Beijing and Moscow are two countries that believe that their system of government, namely totalitarianism, is the best way to develop society. In this regard, they are twin brothers, they support each other and believe that if the world had just such a socio-political system, then everything would be wonderful. And now China finds itself in a situation where a critical moment is really coming, and this critical moment is connected with the fact that its ideological ally can lose.
If they are both together — it means that some plans can be thought of, well, maybe not right away, but later. Yes, Russia will change, it will be a little less totalitarian, but it will never be democratic, because that’s impossible by definition. That is, there are chances that China, together with this other new future Russia, will keep this niche of totalitarianism under control and try to spread this ideology further around the world.
"Let's start negotiations, let's stop the war on any terms, just to preserve this totalitarian Russia"
But the situation is changing, and this one and only real support of China is being defeated. China has been left alone with the rest of the democratic world, and it has very serious problems. It is obvious that under these circumstances, China would very much like the war to stop immediately and go into a freeze, which is what Putin is talking about and what Xi Jinping and all other Chinese leaders are repeating.
So, I think that the signal here is not to someone across the border: it is a cry of desperation, it is that China is starting, just like Russia is now, to beg "let's start negotiations, let's stop the war on any terms, just to preserve this totalitarian Russia". At least that's how I read these messages.
India, in this version of the distribution of the world, we consider as part of the democratic world, because India is a country where there are no obvious signs of a totalitarian government. Yes, India's position in this conflict is difficult. Yes, it wants, like some other countries, to receive dividends from it, primarily economic, and it is already doing so. It does not want to unequivocally take the side of Ukraine as a victim of aggression. But at the same time, this is still not a position of one hundred percent support for Russia, it is a neutral position, which, in my opinion, is unfair to the country that is the victim of aggression. This is a position that undermines international law to a certain extent, but it is not a position of support for the aggressor, and that is not bad either. There is still a chance to continue work here, and it seems to me that the chance is quite large if we combine the efforts of Ukraine, the United States, and civilized countries, and here we can come to some more or less positive solutions. And in the situation with China, such solutions are not yet visible.
The head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Qin Gang, believes that the situation in the war has reached a "critical moment". In my opinion, he is speaking about the fact that this moment will mean the loss of the Russian Federation. So, if now the Ukrainian armed forces, having accumulated the appropriate resources of all parameters, from human to technical, go on a counteroffensive and expel the Russian army from the territory of Ukraine, this will mean the military defeat of the Russian Federation, and this is a critical moment for China, because behind this defeat on the battlefield will be the defeat of the Putin regime. So it will either change or collapse. And together with it, the structure that he keeps intact so far, i.e. the Russian Federation, may collapse. So this is a really critical moment for the Chinese, and because of that China wants to freeze the situation and make it as favorable as possible for the Putin regime and thus, to a certain extent, sides with Putin. Although this is only political right now, according to Western intelligence — China has not crossed the red line and has not supplied Russia with lethal weapons.
I don't think it's about the risks of using nuclear weapons, seeing as the leaders of the five nuclear powers have declared jointly that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it cannot be started, because it will be the beginning of the end for everyone. I think that the Chinese understand this perfectly, no worse than Putin himself. Therefore, it seems to me that this is not about any additional hints about nuclear weapons.
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