Russia is ready: What Putin has planned for Belarus, Lukashenko and the north of Ukraine
Lukashenko wants to jump out of this story, tell the West that he was pressured by Putin (Photo:REUTERS)
Lukashenko wants to jump out of this story
The topic of Belarus was brought into the Ukrainian media space with the "mysterious" death of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Vladimir Makei. I crossed paths with the deceased many times. I just know how Makei looked after his health and valued his position. I think he had dreams of replacing Lukashenko one day. It is hard to say whether these dreams have been preserved in recent years. But if you want to know what my intuition says, I think there is a very high probability that Makei was killed. There are substances that can be administered that simulate a heart attack. His death was absolutely not accidental. Because Russia today, first of all, wants to finally swallow Belarus. By any means.
There is a union state now, and there will be a union state in the future, where Belarus will no longer have a single maneuver or opportunity to have its say. Secondly, I think that possible options for an offensive from the North are being prepared. These may not be mass offensives, but some kind of landings, opportunities to take, for example, the Rivne NPP, cut highways, railways, the Warsaw highway. Our military and special services are 100% aware of this and have been planning actions for the contingency. Thirdly, I think that at some point, Putin is thinking of pressuring Lukashenko to participate in military operations. This is also certainly possible, although I also do not rule out that Putin is thinking about a provocation not only on our borders, but also on NATO’s borders. I am absolutely sure that this option is also being discussed.
Lukashenko has not yet given his final consent to Belarus joining Russia in the event of a new union state, so that Putin could say, ‘well, finally, we are getting Belarus back.’ And Putin does not trust Lukashenko 100%, realizing that he is taking money from him, trying to keep afloat the Belarusian economy, which cannot survive without Russian money. And under today's sanctions, what can Belarus do economically?! Previously, it was a black (gray) channel for the export of goods to Russia. What now? Lukashenko understands that in both economic and safety terms, this is now a path to nowhere for him. His animal instincts tell him perfectly clearly that at some point Putin will simply get rid of him and carry out an operation on the inclusion of Belarus in Russia (on certain conditions of the federal districts). I think that these plans are 100% ready in Russia.
Lukashenko wants to jump out of this story, tell the West that he was pressured by Putin, and at some point exchange the fact that he is leaving Belarus semi-independent for a guarantee of his security (his physical safety, the security of his assets, and everything that he transferred outside of Belarusian borders). I am absolutely sure that he wants it very much. Was Makei conducting these negotiations with the West? Perhaps some of them, but not in whole, for Makei was controlled by the Russian special services. Lukashenko has other mediators who are conducting negotiations.
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