Now Putin needs a truce. On his, Putin's terms.
This is when you sign something similar to agreements with Turkey and the UN on the unblocking of Ukrainian ports for the export of grain with one hand, and with the other, you hit the port in Odesa with «Caliber» missiles, while at the same time directing your own media killers to spread misinformation that Ukrainians themselves fired at their own strategic object.
And at the same time receiving from the UN just a worthless reaction of uncertain content about the abstract condemnation of shelling. But not Russia, which carries out these attacks. To be honest, Putin knows how to push his own scenarios.
Using both - a developed network of Russian agents, which are widely incorporated into all international institutions - from the UN to the IAEA, which still has not recognized the seizure of the Zaporizhzhya NPP as an act of nuclear terrorism and a not less network of foreign politicians and officials financed by Russia.
Such as the ex-chancellor of Germany Schröder, who spends his vacation in Moscow. The capital of the country that started the modern war in Europe. And if you think that "money does not smell", it is not so. Now the money from Russia - and it is not their "wooden" rubles, but real dollars and euros - smells. With the blood of Ukrainians who are being killed by the Russians. It's just that not everyone is stopped by this fact.
What will Putin do next and what is he preparing for? Russia is preparing to legalize the occupation of captured Ukrainian territories. Sometimes it is also called annexation. The practice of raising Russian flags with the playing of the Soviet-Russian national anthem in captured Ukrainian towns, of course, does not cause a great stir.
Usually, such acts of vandalism against international law and all post-war agreements between countries take place in the presence of several local traitors - collaborators, representatives of Moscow and a dozen people of retirement age. But Putin doesn't care about the picture anymore.
Putin wants to accomplish what he set out to do - to "join" Ukrainian territories with Russia according to a scenario similar to the Crimean one.
And after that, the Kremlin wants to announce to the West that from this moment the war takes on a new meaning. American "Himars" will fire at Russian troop concentrations, command headquarters, and warehouses with ammunition already on the territory, which in Russia is considered as a part of the Russian Federation.
At the same time, the pro-Russian lobby in the West will do its job, cutting aid to Ukraine and bringing into the public space narratives about the inadmissibility of direct confrontation between NATO countries and Russia due to the supply of weapons and shelling of objects on the territories that the Russians recognize as theirs.
The diabolical combination of the Kremlin will have its continuation. Putin and his army now need the truce - on his terms. This is when the occupation forces of Russia are not fired upon, but they are able to fire missiles at any object in Ukraine. With a correspondingly meager reaction from the UN that Putin is not formally violating anything.
This "truce" will resemble the "Peace of Versailles". After the signing of which the experienced French Marshal Foch said: “This is not peace. This is a truce for 20 years." But in our case there won't be any 20 years. Think logically: according to analytical centers, including British intelligence, Russia has already used 85% of its troops in hostilities in Ukraine, reports CNN.
The Russians need time to recover, regroup, mobilize (covert or overt), train the mobilized, and restore equipment. Putin is trying to negotiate with Turkish President Erdogan on the construction of a Bayraktar plant in Russia.
As you understand, the construction of the plant is not a matter of one day. Even at an accelerated pace in wartime conditions. So Putin works from a relatively distant perspective.
Of course, transferring the production of "Bayraktars" to Russia would be a large-scale betrayal. But I really hope that the president of Turkey will never go to it. And not only because he understands the threats to Ukraine. And he is aware of the threats to Turkey itself. In the form of a direct confrontation with Russia not only in the region of Karabakh but also in the Black Sea in case of Putin's advance in Ukraine and the seizure of new territories.
We can send our Turkish friends the history of the Russo-Turkish wars to remind them of the historical context. Although I think, Erdogan knows him very well.
So now Putin wants to stop the fire from the Ukrainian side, without stopping at the destruction of Ukraine. And be sure - the scenario of North and South Korea (for those naive people who think that Russia will stop at the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions) is impossible.
Putin hates Ukraine so deeply and comprehensively, his propaganda has pumped the heads of Russians so tightly that, while seizing any settlement in the Luhansk Region, he is already planning a siege of Kharkiv and bombing of the Dnipro.
And for this, he does not critically need high-precision weapons and microcircuits from Taiwan. He is ready to burn the cities with his primitive, still Soviet "Grads", which cover territories with square kilometers, but not precisely hit a specific target, like the American "Himars". The "Grad" projectile does not have a GPS-navigation system, it flies anywhere according to the ballistic trajectory - to the position of Ukrainian troops, to a school, kindergarten, hospital or simply burns crops in the field.
To replenish the ammunition of these "Grads" at Russian factories working in several shifts, Putin needs time. In the form of this "truce". But remember - Putin is preparing for a new war.
The conclusion will not be too original. Ukraine needs weapons and ammunition. All this is needed by the country, which, sorry to remind you, disarmed and transferred its cruise missiles to Russia, which is now shelling Ukraine with the same missiles. Together with nuclear weapons, the peaceful and naive young state also destroyed its own strategic aviation. Which could also carry ordinary weapons. The same missiles and aerial bombs that would now stop the aggressor on the front line.
Will someone ever count in money how much of Ukraine's resources it has put on the altar of world peace? It is somewhat inconvenient to remind you now, but this disarmament took place under pressure and under the support of the West. So now is the time to right this historical wrong. Yes, it is painful for the economy and expensive to send one's own resources and money to distant Ukraine. It is about a lot of money and a lot of resources. Much more than has already been sent.
But it will be even more expensive not to do it. And then with the same "Himars" to hit their own infrastructure - excellent autobahns, bridges, schools, which the Russians will use for their headquarters. To stop rusty Russian tanks already on the territory of NATO countries.
Do you think this is a fantastic scenario? And I think not. Putin hates you, our dear Western partners, as sincerely as he hates Ukrainians. At least, in Poland, which is a neighbor of Ukraine, this is understood very clearly. The Poles have already taken the course to create the most powerful land forces in Europe. And they call their country the one that is at the front.
Therefore, the best offer for all Europeans (and therefore for Americans, who will not silently watch the war in Europe) is to increase support for Ukraine. So as not to pay with blood for your own freedom. After all, Putin needs Ukraine not only as a territory. And as an industrial, energy and food base for the great march to the West. Keep this in mind when your government decides on aid to Ukraine.