According to the IMF's forecast, Ukraine's GDP is now expected to grow by 3.2%, whereas it was previously estimated at 3-4% during the third review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program in March. The economic growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 6.5%, which is higher than the 2023 figure of 5.3%. The IMF also anticipates inflation to slow to an annual rate of 6.4% this year from 12.9% last year, with a slight acceleration to 7.6% in 2025.
The forecast for Ukraine's current account deficit for this and next year has been maintained at the same levels as during the March EFF review— 5.7% of GDP in 2024 and 8.2% of GDP in 2025, compared to last year's 5.5% of GDP.
Additionally, the IMF reaffirmed its expectation of a decrease in unemployment in Ukraine, from 19.1% last year to 14.5% this year and further to 13.8% next year.
The forecast suggested that economic growth in the eurozone will accelerate to 0.8% this year and 1.5% in 2025 after a mere 0.4% in 2023, having been significantly hampered by Russia's war against Ukraine.