Kyivstar’s competitors can only absorb a 10% increase in subscribers

Ukrainian mobile operators have limited technical capacities for adding new customers, according to Chernyshov.

"Each of Kyivstar's competitors in Ukraine has limited technical capabilities to smoothly onboard new clients, specifically up to 10% more of their [current] subscriber base," said Chernyshov.

"For example, if Vodafone has a customer base of 20 million, they can easily accept an additional 2 million [subscribers]," he explains.

"Lifecell has a smaller base [11.4 million subscribers as of Q3 2023, with 9.1 million considered active], and you can also grow that by 10% — this is the number they can comfortably accommodate."

Kyivstar itself has a base of 24 million subscribers.

"…Not all of them will switch [operators]. It's unwise to assume that if only two companies remain, mobile communication in Ukraine will be fine. Nothing good will come of it," Chernyshov concludes.

At the same time, he is confident that Kyivstar will be able to bring its services back online, even if it will take some time.