Even this scenario will require several conditions: nuclear generation reaching maximum capacity, increased electricity imports, and at least partial repairs at damaged thermal power plants.
According to Kovalenko, there are currently no tools available to improve the situation much further. To do so would require either a sharp increase in generation or a threefold increase in imports.
“I don’t see these conditions changing dramatically in the next 5-6 months,” Kovalenko said.
He then explained how to estimate how many hours per day Ukrainian will have to endure blackouts for.
“Suppose we have 100% consumption in a specific area or across the country; then we encounter a 25% deficit, reducing available energy to 75%,” the CEO begins.
“However, we must consider critical infrastructure, which on average accounts for another 25% [and must be powered at all times]. That leaves 50% of available energy to be distributed evenly among all consumers in Ukraine, meaning we have power 50% of the time. If the deficit is around 35%, then only 40% remains for retail consumers, equating to an average of 12 hours of power supply per day.”
Kovalenko also noted that there could be days or weeks with emergency conditions, during which electricity supply might last no more than seven hours per day but rarely less.
“I do not foresee a deficit-free winter,” he concluded.
“There are no scenarios where we do not face a deficit unless the average temperature is +15C throughout the entire winter, which would keep consumption level. But if we talk about a typical, average winter, a deficit-free scenario is not feasible.”