Russia’s regional budgets buckle as war costs drive record deficits

Business

1 May, 05:28 PM

Author: Alex Stezhensky
Russian regional budget deficits are expected to hit RUB 1.9 trillion, or about $ 25.3 billion, in 2026 after setting an all-time record last year, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov warned, The Moscow Times reported.

The shortfall would grow by another RUB 400 billion, or about $ 5.3 billion, as mounting costs from the war and sanctions continue to strain regional finances.

Siluanov said the regional budget situation was “difficult.”

“Last year, the deficit grew significantly — from the usual RUB 200 billion–RUB 300 billion, or about $ 2.7 billion–$ 4 billion, in consolidated regional budget deficits to RUB 1.5 trillion, or about $ 20 billion,” Siluanov said.

Siluanov said regions must tighten their budgets to bring the deficit down to RUB 1 trillion, or about $ 13.3 billion.

The largest deficits last year, he said, appeared in so-called donor regions, where the shortfall was driven by falling profit tax collections.

Overall, regional budgets lost RUB 480 billion, or about $ 6.4 billion, in profit tax revenue, down 8.3% from 2024.

To plug their budget holes, regions spent about RUB 1 trillion, or about $ 13.3 billion, from bank accounts and increased their debt to RUB 3.5 trillion, or about $ 46.7 billion — the highest level in 15 years, the report said.

“Regional budgets are unlikely to see an increase in profit tax revenue in 2026. Companies’ financial results, which tax revenue depends on, will remain under pressure from high borrowing costs, logistics expenses and labor shortages,” Russian experts said. “At the same time, regional spending will remain high. In addition to paying for social costs, the regions are forced to finance military recruitment, which consumes about RUB 1 trillion, or about $ 13.3 billion, a year.”

Mounting economic problems caused by the war and sanctions have hit the financial stability of Russia’s regions.

By the end of 2025, the combined regional budget deficit had risen 3.6-fold from the previous year to RUB 1.478 trillion, or about $ 19.7 billion, the highest level on record.

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