The composite leading indicator signaling the economy’s entry into recession has exceeded 0.44 since November 2025, well above the critical threshold of 0.12. At the same time, the symmetric indicator signaling exit from recession fell to 0.05 in November 2025, down from 0.10 in October and far below the critical level of 0.35. Analysts say this indicates not only a high probability of recession but also extremely low chances of a rapid recovery, warning of a potential downturn lasting more than a year.
The industrial sector continues to deteriorate. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI for January 2026 remained below 50 points, in contraction territory. Profitability in industry has fallen from 20% in September 2024 to 12% and continues to decline.
Consumer sentiment is also collapsing. According to the Levada Center, the population’s economic expectations index fell to 113 points in January 2026 from 140 in 2024. The consumer sentiment index has returned to levels last seen in late 2022 — 98 points — reflecting prevailing pessimism among Russians.
The baseline scenario for 2026, according to Russian institutions themselves, is further slowdown amid weak GDP dynamics and declining investment, with a real risk of a technical recession.
Earlier reports said Russia’s oil and gas revenues in 2025 fell to their lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic.
The Russian budget could face a significant deficit as early as the beginning of 2026 due to lower-than-expected oil and gas revenues, officials in the aggressor country’s government acknowledge.
Ukrainian intelligence said the financial condition of medium and large Russian enterprises has continued to deteriorate, showing growing imbalances in the corporate sector.
More than half of Russia’s large companies ended 2025 with declining profits, reduced or fully froze investment projects, and many are preparing to lay off employees.
On Feb. 24, 2026, it was reported that around 300 companies in Russia are preparing to shut down.