Tens of millions lost monthly as Ukraine’s seaport shutdown hits metallurgy

Stanislav Zinchenko, chief executive of GMK Center consultancy, said sea exports of iron ore concentrate, primarily shipped to China, made up about 50 percent of the industry’s exports in the first half of the year. The blockade of Black Sea ports has put roughly half of Ukraine’s iron-ore exports at risk, or about 1 million tons a month, he said.

GMK Center estimates that, because maritime shipping is paralyzed, reductions in iron-ore exports alone could cost Ukraine $60 million to $70 million a month in export revenue, or $700 million to $800 million a year. Output in the iron-ore sector could fall by about 40 percent, in part because steel shipments by sea have also been curtailed.

“Unfortunately, a rapid normalization is not possible; we remember that in 2023 it took at least three to four months after the first test sailings through the maritime corridor,” Zinchenko said.

Zinchenko said a political solution is likely necessary. He called it unlikely that military measures alone could ensure safe, sustained passage for commercial vessels. Beyond physical passage, he said, shipping costs must account for risks to shipowners, cargo receivers, and crews.

GMK Center does not expect sea exports of iron ore to resume while Ukraine’s Black Sea ports remain closed, the firm told NV Business.