Zheleznyak addresses dollar exchange rate concerns in Ukraine’s budget and macro forecasts

"Many people still don’t grasp what 'the dollar exchange rate in the budget will be' means, and the media often sensationalizes this with loud headlines," Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak said.

He reminded the public of three key points: the exchange rate is not included in the budget but is part of the macro forecast; it rarely aligns with reality; and it’s based on budget figures that officials don't accurately predict.

"For demonstration purposes, I’ve shown that forecasts almost never match reality — they guess right about once every 10 years," Zheleznyak said.

He explained the rationale behind including the exchange rate in macroeconomic forecasts, stating, "We need to calculate how much foreign aid will be converted into hryvnias and our spending on debt service, as well as revenue from customs and excise duties, which depend heavily on the exchange rate."

He added that the Ministry of Finance often overestimates the exchange rate to secure budget agreements with partners, urging skepticism toward the projected rate of 45 hryvnias per dollar for next year. "The only correct answer is that no one knows what the rate will be," he emphasized.

Earlier, it was reported that the Ukrainian government approved the draft state budget for 2025, projecting revenues of UAH 2.07 trillion and expenditures of UAH 3.64 trillion, with the exchange rate set at 45 hryvnias to the dollar.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated that the Cabinet expects state budget revenues to grow by nearly 30% and expenditures by 20% in 2025.