Scorched-earth tactics: Ukraine braces for winter power threats as Russia targets energy grid
Thermal power plant in Ukraine damaged by Russian strikes (Photo: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)
The likelihood of a nationwide blackout in Ukraine this
winter is low, as roughly 50% of the country’s transformers are now protected
from Russian strikes, the head of Ukraine’s national grid operator Ukrenergo,
Vitalii Zaychenko, said in a Telegram
post.
“Before, their [Russia’s] goal was to reach Kyiv in three
days and take over all of Ukraine. Then they started using scorched-earth
tactics on the battlefield. Now, they’re doing the same with our energy
infrastructure,” Zaychenko wrote. “Massive attacks are hitting every power
facility. Every day, swarms of drones and missiles try to wipe them off the
map.”
Thanks to support from European partners, Ukraine has stockpiled
a substantial amount of critical equipment, he said.
“We have mechanisms, experts, and experience that allow us
to restore damaged facilities quickly. But without our partners’ help, this
would have been extremely difficult,” said the head of Ukrenergo’s Management
Board.
Zaychenko again urged Ukrainian businesses and industries to
prepare for potential outages and simultaneously support the grid.
“I think the scenario where there’s simply no electricity at
all is unlikely. But all energy workers are doing their jobs so that power
remains available continuously—not just on a difficult schedule,” he told RBC-Ukraine.
“As of today, Ukrenergo’s high-voltage network is fully
prepared to transmit winter electricity volumes. If it weren’t for Russian
strikes, we could say with confidence that we expect no major difficulties
during the heating season,” he added. “Unfortunately, the enemy continues to
target both generation and our substations.”
In that context, Zaychenko emphasized the importance of a
frank dialogue with industry and businesses, especially on involving privately
owned backup power installations in Ukraine’s electricity market. He said this
would accelerate the development of distributed generation systems—one of the
key pillars of Ukraine’s energy resilience.
According to companies that operate gas-turbine and
gas-piston generation units, this type of power production has grown by 270% in
Ukraine as of October compared to earlier this year. Energy storage capacity
has also seen significant growth.
Zaychenko credited outreach to businesses—especially efforts
by the Federation of Employers of Ukraine—and Ukrenergo’s long-term auctions
for ancillary services as playing a key role in that progress.
Regarding energy supplies for winter, Ukraine’s electricity
import capacity has already increased in October, reaching a peak of 2.1
gigawatts, according to Ukrenergo. Further technical work is ongoing within the
East Europe Capacity Calculation Region (EE CCR) to expand import potential.
On the night of Oct. 10, Russia launched a major missile and
drone strike targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving parts of Kyiv
without power and water and disrupting metro service. Casualties were reported.
Emergency shutdowns were introduced in Sumy Oblast. In
Zaporizhzhya, Russian strikes damaged gas infrastructure facilities.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast also suffered widespread attacks on its energy
infrastructure. In Poltava Oblast, power facilities were damaged by direct hits
and falling debris.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia launched over 450
drones and 30 missiles at Ukraine’s energy facilities that night, triggering
blackouts in Kyiv, as well as in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Chernihiv,
Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, and Odesa oblasts.
Separately, Bloomberg reported that Russia has destroyed 60%
of Ukraine’s domestic gas production.
During the night of Oct. 16, Russia carried out another
large-scale attack on Ukraine’s energy grid using 357 aerial weapons. Ukrainian
air defenses shot down or neutralized 288 of them. The Air Force said key
targets were located in Poltava and Kharkiv oblasts.
In response to the attacks, Ukrenergo imposed emergency power outages in Kyiv and 10 other oblasts.
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