China disappointed with Russia’s Kinzhal missiles, dismissing them as only ‘technically’ hypersonic
Chinese analysts, keen to understand how Beijing's own hypersonic missiles could counter American defenses in battle, are disappointed with the performance of Russian Kinzhal missiles, Business Insider reported on Jan. 17.
China has been closely monitoring the use of Kinzhals in Ukraine to gauge how these missiles fare against the American Patriot systems used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Beijing hopes that China's own hypersonic missiles would give the country an advantage over the U.S. in a potential war. However, Chinese defense analysts are questioning the effectiveness of the Russian missile.
“There is more and more evidence showing that what the US and Ukraine say on this matter is true,” Chinese defense analyst Yin Jie wrote in the Shaanxi military magazine Ordnance Industry Science and Technology in November.
Though journals do not necessarily reflect the views of military intelligence, these types of publications do not appear in China without state approval.
Yin published a surprisingly critical review of how Russia uses its Kinzhals, stating the missile is “unlikely to have a significant impact” on the battlefield.
He described the Kinzhal as an evolution of the Russian ground-based Iskander missile, quickly completed as part of a “short-term, hasty project” that was forced due to pressure from Western competitors in the pre-war years.
“This missile, which was developed based on the technical framework of the 1980s, may not have any amazing battlefield performance,” wrote Yin.
The maneuverability of the Kinzhal “cannot be compared to that of a true hypersonic missile,” and its ballistic trajectory makes the Kinzhal vulnerable to Patriots.
A similar view can be found in “Showdown between the Dagger [Kinzhal] and the Patriot in Ukraine,” an analysis published by the prominent Beijing defense and science journal Military Arms. This analysis states that the Kinzhal is at best a “conditionally hypersonic missile.”
“Although Russia calls the 'Dagger' a hypersonic missile, analysts from other countries generally believe that the so-called hypersonic 'Dagger' missile is actually an air-launched version of the 'Iskander' short-range tactical ballistic missile,” the article states.
This assessment coincides with what Western experts have said about the Kinzhal — that it is not a “real” hypersonic missile because it cannot effectively maneuver at hypersonic speeds, though it can achieve them.
Yin also criticized the process of using these missiles. Russia stopped launching Kinzhals from MiG-31 aircraft, deciding instead to use slower Su-34 aircraft — too slow to launch these missiles at optimal speed. Already slower than the MiG-31, the Su-34 is further burdened by the heavy Kinzhal.
Another drawback is the Russian satellite guidance system for the missiles, which does not have enough satellites to ensure accuracy.
Russia simply does not have enough Kinzhals: Western sanctions have limited Moscow's ability to rapidly produce weapons, restricting the use of the missiles.
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