Putin’s rule could collapse within three years, Forbes columnist writes
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could be toppled within three years (Photo: Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via REUTERS)
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could be toppled within
three years if the current situation holds or worsens, independent journalist
Melik Kaylan wrote in a Forbes
column.
Kaylan wrote that the scenarios for Putin’s fall range from
a swift assassination to a show trial, with possible triggers including new
Ukrainian attacks, domestic unrest or China withdrawing its support.
Russia has seen regime change twice in the past century
after disastrous military campaigns — World War I and the invasion of
Afghanistan, the author wrote.
As pressure on Putin grows, his inner circle is weighing its
own survival. Kaylan wrote that Russians would first blame the elite around
Putin for the country’s problems, believing it is shielding him from
understanding and fixing the situation. That is why the elite would rebel
before a possible uprising in the Russian army, he wrote.
Putin has his own personal security units, including several
security agencies such as the FSB, Interior Ministry troops and the National
Guard, as well as 30,000 direct security and police personnel that have
competed with one another for years, Kaylan wrote. He said a civil war among
security forces is one possible scenario.
The question of how Putin’s rule ends depends largely on the
intended outcome, Kaylan wrote. A swift assassination followed by a power
struggle would neutralize the threat early, before his allies could respond.
But it would rule out the possibility of staging a show trial and making him a
“scapegoat.”
Kaylan cited the rule of Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu
as an example. During the Cold War, Ceausescu was executed by top military
officials, while the former elite continued to run the country under a
“nominally democratic system.”
The recent mysterious death of Putin ally and friend Sergei
Ivanov suggests similar scenarios are possible, Kaylan wrote. Ivanov had for
years been viewed as a likely successor to the current Russian dictator.
“Such incidents create problems for Putin. As potential
rivals are rapidly eliminated, others begin to feel unsafe and move against him
preemptively,” the article said.
Kaylan wrote that amid growing paranoia, almost anything
could become a trigger, including large-scale attacks on Moscow, food
shortages, separatist uprisings in regions such as Tatarstan, Bashkortostan or
Chechnya, or the liberation of Crimea.
China’s actions also remain an important factor, Kaylan
wrote. If Beijing decides that Putin’s weakening as a leader threatens its own
interests, it could trigger his fall in various ways, including by ending military
aid or invading Siberia, he wrote.
“Putin’s days are numbered. If this trend continues or
worsens, he is likely to be toppled within three years,” the article said.
On May 4, several media outlets published details from a
European intelligence report on how Russian dictator Vladimir Putin had become
even more afraid of an assassination attempt and how security measures around
him had been tightened in recent months.
The military war may be swinging in our favor, but the information war continues.
Just as an army needs soldiers, so does a free society need its journalists to ensure that people have access to honest, trustworthy voices to understand the world around them.
For the past five years, The New Voice of Ukraine has been working tirelessly to push back against Russian narratives and defend democracy. But we cannot do it alone.
Please consider supporting us on Patreon for just $5 a month – your donation does directly to supporting journalists and ensuring that this front of the infowar says solid and defended.
Thank you.
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Google News
