Interview with a military expert about the looming Battle for Donbas
Russian military vehicle destroyed in Sumy Oblast (Photo:Dmytro Zhyvytskiy/Facebook)
Russia’s primary military campaign in this war will be focused on the Battle for Donbas, despite their losses at Mariupol, Oleh Zhdanov, a military expert, told Radio NV in an interview on April 7.
This interview has been edited for clarity.
NV: Let’s start with news
from the United States. Besides new sanctions, the U.S. Senate has passed the
Ukraine Lend-Lease act, that would expedite and ramp up shipments of weapons to
Ukraine. Now, the House of Representatives is yet to vote on it, but could you
tell us about lend-lease, how could it help Ukraine?
Zhdanov: It will work for us in the following way. Lend-Lease is
a program, under which any countries that has weapons Ukraine needs, can give
them to us, and the U.S. government guarantees to either pay for them, or
replaces them. Ukraine will settle this account with Washington after the war.
What is left of all this equipment after the war – we’ll send back, and pay for the rest that was destroyed.
That’s
Lend-Lease in a nutshell.
NV: How quickly this scheme could start operating, and what else
would be needed besides the decision by the United States?
Zhdanov: Besides the principal decision, the whole bureaucratic
procedure could take one, maybe two weeks. Then there’s the question of how everything will be shipped,
exactly: by air, sea, or rail. Don’t
forget that, as you said, first the bill has to be passed by the House of
Representatives, and then the U.S. President has to sign it into law. Only
after that can the whole bureaucratic process begin, covering shipments.
NV: Which countries we can count on for these weapons then, whom
do we turn to first?
Zhdanov: I think that the Pentagon and U.S. Treasury will be the main beneficiaries of this program. The treasury will issue financial guarantees, and the Department of Defense will work with Ukraine’s General Staff on the exact list of what and how much of it we need.
One of the benefits of Lend-Lease is that it allows us to get
all kinds of weapon systems, not just limited to old Soviet gear, provided the
United States are willing to reimburse any other countries – and themselves – for
it. I’m
talking about their own state procurement. Basically, they can use these
guarantees to order any kind of weapons Ukraine needs from their own
military-industrial complex.
NV: Despite the Russian withdrawal from the north, another attack
on Kyiv could still happen at some point. Our position in the east and south
remains challenging. How would you forecast developments along the frontlines
in the coming weeks?
Zhdanov: I’d say that the north-eastern front is more or less safe right now. More or less – because their forces, after we’ve pounded them, are redeploying to central Russia, close to our borders, recovering. Following this, they will be sent to Ukraine’s east. Only if they are successful in Donbas, could the Russians threaten Kharkiv or Kyiv again. If that happens, they could reach Dnipro River, and follow it north, splitting up and attacking Kyiv and Kharkiv, our heartland.
But that remains an “if”, if they succeed in the east. We’re doing everything we can, and we have a very real
chance to derail Russian plans. We can describe the Battle for Donbas as
decisive for this war.
NV: How big is the threat to our coastal cities, in particular
Odesa?
Zhdanov: There’s
no major threat. Firstly, any landing attempt at Odesa without proper support
from nearby ground troops would be suicidal. And Russian troops did not manage
to advance along those lines, they were defeated. Right now, the fighting is
going on near Kherson. Mykolaiv, Voznesensk have been defended, enemy
offensives were repelled there.
Secondly, Russian marines that were supposed to land at Odesa
either died at Mariupol, or are tied up in the ongoing Pacific exercises, due
to the crisis in Russo-Japanese relations. Additionally, 40% of their largest
landing ships were either destroyed, or need repairs. It’s very unlikely they would try a seaborne assault, and
they don’t
have the means to do it, I’d
say.
NV: Could you expand on this crisis with Japan?
Zhdanov: Well, Japan made very good use of this war, after they
saw that all Russian forces from the east of the country were redeployed to its
European part. By the way, even their Ussuriysk Army, that had only a skeleton
crew, is currently redeploying westward. So Japan declared Kuril Islands
historically Japanese territory, under Russian occupation. In response, Russia
unilaterally withdrew from the process of signing a peace treaty with Japan – something
that is still missing after WWII. To deter any potential Japanese military
action, Moscow had to start these emergency Pacific Fleet military exercises.
And those marines are currently gaming out naval assaults on Kuril Islands, repelling
potential assaults by Japan. Basically, the Pacific Fleet is currently unable
to reinforce Russian troops in the west.
NV: What can you say about Mariupol, how’s the situation there? From what I understand, the enemy
has a five-fold numerical advantage over our boys there.
Zhdanov: Oh, it’s more than that. Based on the data from our General Staff, on some directions in Mariupol, there are as many as 10 or 12 Russians, for each Ukrainian soldier. By the way, Mariupol is under attack from Russia’s elite troops: 22nd GRU Brigade, their spec ops forces, and the newest, most modern 150th Mechanized Infantry Division. It joined the ranks only in 2019, and has already lost almost half of its strength. The 1st Marine Brigade from Crimea is also engaged at Mariupol.
The force ratio is insane, even from a military planning perspective. Nevertheless, our defenders are steadfast in fighting for their land, their only motivation is to resist, as opposed to retreat or surrender. Mariupol is an example of what Russia can expect from tying to take any other major city in Ukraine.
Close quarters urban combat is very hard. What happened in Grozny
during the first Chechen War is happening right now in Mariupol: Russia is
sustaining massive losses. In Grozny they had a second go, during the second
war, and they won’t
have that this time around. And so, they are mired in this battle, unable to
advance along any major street, their forces burning down at the hands of our
boys.
NV: Russia has no other options, and being unable to take the
city, they are destroying it.
Zhdanov: Yes, they are trying to turn it into ruins, but it also isn’t very effective. It took them six months to bomb Aleppo into oblivion, erasing the city. Mind you, even then Russians didn’t take the city – the garrison simply left, since there’s no point to defend empty ruins.
Defending Mariupol, in
the meantime, is very important. The city is performing the strategically
important task of entangling a large and effective Russian force. Without
Mariupol, all these troops would be in Donbas, making our position there much
more dire. Every day that Mariupol stands is of vital importance for our front
in the east.
NV: How is the situation going to develop for civilians? Some
estimate that as many as 100,000 civilians are still in Mariupol. What are the
prospects of their evacuation?
Zhdanov: Local authorities in Donetsk and Luhansk regions are correctly warning the population of the need to evacuate, given the way Russia is waging war. In their ineptitude, they can’t fight a regular army, so instead they are at war with people, be it the Syrian or Ukrainian people.
The 2007 Georgia war was a short affair, so this wasn’t really the case.
But even there, the Russians didn’t
care for collateral damage when bombing Tskhinvali or Abkhazia. Unfortunately,
it’s
who they are – not humans, but war criminals, at the very least. That’s how they prosecute
war.
NV: We’ve all seen their
methods in the liberated towns of Kyiv oblast. Is this really their strategy:
terror tactics and mass executions?
Zhdanov: I think we all need to understand Russian goals in this war, and how Putin aims to achieve them. We can turn to the recent article about this war by Dmitriy Medvedev. He was channeling Goebbels, laying out the concept of the genocide of Ukrainian nation.
If we followed the advice of some
Europeans and laid down our arms “to avoid bloodshed,” we would have simply been
eradicated: executions, camps, deportations. Putin would have “cleansed” the entire
country, and every one of us would have suffered from his “denazification.”
NV: Our only option is to fight.
Zhdanov: I call this war one of national liberation. We’re fighting for the
very existence of our people, our nation, our state, our country.
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