U.S. strikes leave Iran’s nuclear timeline largely intact, intelligence finds
U.S. sees no major changes in Iran’s nuclear capabilities after war (Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi)
U.S. intelligence agencies believe attacks on Iran’s nuclear
sites caused serious damage but did not significantly weaken Tehran’s nuclear
program, leaving it potentially able to build a nuclear weapon within about a
year, Reuters
reported on May 4, citing three sources.
Two sources said U.S. intelligence agencies had concluded before
June’s 12-day war that Iran could likely produce enough weapons-grade uranium
and assemble a bomb in about three to six months.
After June strikes on nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordow and
Isfahan, that timeline moved to about nine to 12 months, the sources said. Some
facilities were badly damaged or destroyed, but the location of about 440
kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% remains unknown. The International Atomic
Energy Agency estimates that amount would be enough to produce up to 10 nuclear
warheads if enriched further.
U.S. officials say their main goal remains preventing Iran
from obtaining a nuclear weapon, including through negotiations. But
intelligence estimates have changed only modestly, partly because the latest
strikes did not focus directly on nuclear infrastructure and because deeply
buried underground sites are difficult to destroy.
The sources said the estimate of how long Iran would need to
build a nuclear weapon remains largely unchanged partly because of the focus of
the latest U.S. and Israeli military campaign. Israel struck nuclear
facilities, including a uranium processing plant in late March, while the
United States focused more on Iran’s conventional military capabilities,
leadership and military-industrial base.
Some analysts believe the estimates may also reflect the
fact that after the June military action, few major nuclear targets remained
that could be destroyed easily and safely.
“Iran, as far as we know, still has all of its nuclear
material. It’s probably in deeply buried underground facilities where U.S.
munitions can’t penetrate,” said Eric Brewer, vice president of the Nuclear
Materials Security Program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, an arms control
think tank.
Reuters reported that in recent weeks, U.S. officials considered
risky operational options that could seriously complicate Iran’s nuclear
program, including ground raids to seize highly enriched uranium believed to be
stored in an underground tunnel complex near Isfahan.
Iran denies that it intends to build nuclear weapons. U.S.
intelligence and the IAEA say Tehran shut down its warhead development program
in 2003, though some experts believe parts of it may have survived.
Experts say even top intelligence agencies struggle to
assess the true state of Iran’s nuclear program.
Several U.S. intelligence agencies have separately examined
Iran’s nuclear program. While there is broad agreement on Iran’s ability to
build a nuclear weapon, alternative assessments occasionally emerge. Reuters
added that Iran’s nuclear ambitions may have been pushed back further than
current intelligence estimates suggest.
David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector and head of
the Institute for Science and International Security, said the killings of
leading Iranian nuclear scientists likely deepened uncertainty about Iran’s
ability to build a nuclear weapon that would work properly.
“I think everyone agrees: You can’t bomb away knowledge, but
you can certainly destroy know-how,” he said.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran is no longer
demanding the lifting of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a condition
for opening talks with the United States. Instead, Iran has proposed discussing
the strait’s reopening, security guarantees and its nuclear program at the same
time.
The newspaper said Iran signaled through intermediaries that
it is ready to hold a new round of talks in Pakistan this week if Washington
accepts the new proposal as the basis for dialogue.
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