Iran war could net Russia $250 billion this year, KSE analysis shows
REUTERS/Maxim Zmeyev/File Photo
Russia could earn as much as $250 billion in additional
revenue this year if the Iran war does not wind down in near future, a
report from the KSE Institute at the Kyiv School of Economics says.
The report, obtained by Der Spiegel, models three scenarios for how the U.S.–Israeli operation will affect global oil markets. The authors say even if the war is to end immediately, Russia would get a meaningful revenue windfall; a protracted quagmire would produce far larger gains.
“From the perspective of European security policy, transit through the Strait of Hormuz must be restored as quickly as possible, whatever it takes,” said co-author Benjamin Hilgenstock, director of the KSE Institute Center for Geoeconomics.
Key findings:
- Short conflict (ends by mid-April): World oil prices rise to
about $100 per barrel and gas prices increase. Even if supply and transport
disruptions take months to resolve and prices ease to about $70 per barrel by
year-end Russia would earn an estimated $169 billion from oil exports in 2026
instead of an expected $99 billion. Gas sales would bring roughly $50 billion
(about $15 billion more). Overall, the report estimates Russia’s commodity
revenues would rise by $84 billion, and state revenues available to the Kremlin
by about $45 billion.
- Longer conflict (runs to end of May): Oil prices could spike to about $140 per barrel before easing. During active fighting and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Russia’s monthly oil export receipts could climb to nearly $30 billion (compared with roughly $8 billion previously). By the end of 2026, Moscow could earn about $161.3 billion more than it would otherwise.
- Prolonged six-month conflict (through end of September): Oil
prices could surge to $150–$200 per barrel and liquefied natural gas prices
would also rise. Export revenues in summer months could reach nearly $50
billion per month. By year-end, Moscow’s combined oil and gas sales could total
about $386.6 billion, roughly $252.4 billion more. Tax and other state revenues
from commodity trade could climb to about $212.5 billion, an increase of $151
billion, nearly four times than expected before the war.
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