Russian air superiority aids offensive in Avdiivka; more aggressive frontline advances expected – ISW
Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with close air support during the final days of their offensive operation to capture Avdiivka, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on Feb. 17.
It is likely the first time that Russian forces have done so in Ukraine.
The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating near Avdiivka stated on Feb. 17 that Russian forces launched 60 KAB guided aerial bombs at Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka over the past day, and a Ukrainian soldier operating in the area stated that Russian forces launched up to 500 glide bombs in recent days.
Russian sources widely credited the Russian use of glide bombs with allowing Russian forces to overcome Ukrainian defenses in Avdiivka, and some Russian military bloggers asserted that Russian forces have air superiority in the area.
Russian forces have gradually increased their use of glide bombs throughout the theater since early 2023, but the recent mass use of glide bombs in Avdiivka is the first time that Russian aviation has used these bombs at scale to provide close air support to advancing infantry troops.
The Russian ability to conduct these mass strikes for several days in the most active part of the frontline suggests that Ukrainian forces were not able to deny them access to the airspace around Avdiivka, and Russian forces likely leveraged this temporary localized air superiority to facilitate the capture of much of the settlement.
Delays in Western security assistance may lead to further significant constraints on Ukrainian air defenses that could allow Russian forces to replicate the close air support that facilitated Russian advances in Avdiivka at scale in Ukraine.
Limited effective air defense systems, dwindling air defense missiles stocks, and continued Russian missile and drone strikes against rear population centers are likely forcing Ukraine to make difficult choices about what areas of the frontline receive air defense coverage.
Recurring temporary localized and limited Russian air superiority would likely allow Russian forces to more aggressively pursue operational advances along the frontline. Widespread interrupted air superiority would allow Russian forces to conduct routine large-scale aviation operations and bomb Ukrainian cities beyond the frontline to devastating effect.
Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down three Russian fighter aircraft – two Su-34s and one Su-35 – over Donetsk Oblast on Feb. 17, likely having committed scarce air defense assets to help cover the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka.
On Feb. 17, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had withdrawn from Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast. He said that the decision was made to avoid encirclement and to save the lives and health of the soldiers.
During the withdrawal of units from Avdiivka, a small number of Ukrainian soldiers were taken prisoner, the Tavria Operational-Strategic Group Commander Oleksandr Tarnavskyi reported on Feb. 17.
The withdrawal from Avdiivka was the correct decision to safeguard the lives of Ukrainian defenders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during his speech at the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 17.
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