Kremlin faces conscription issues as volunteer numbers drop despite incentives, says Budanov
Russia is facing significant challenges with its conscription efforts, which began about three months ago, the head of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR), Kyrylo Budanov, said in an interview with Forbes on Aug. 7.
"The situation with mobilization in Russia is not so simple," Budanov said.
"Problems with human resources in Russia began about three months ago. This moment is not known to everyone. Before that, Russia had no problems with mobilization."
At the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin announced a partial mobilization and tried to encourage volunteers with significant amounts of money. However, this approach has proven insufficient to replenish the Russian army, said Budanov.
Budanov noted that despite substantial monetary incentives from the Kremlin, the flow of volunteers to the Russian army is decreasing dramatically. Recently, a shortage of about 10% has been recorded.
"Think about why the enemy is constantly raising the level of a one-time cash payment for signing a contract?" Budanov stated.
"Depending on the region, the amounts have already reached 2 million Russian rubles ($23,310). This is a huge amount of money for Russia. The answer is obvious — the flow of volunteers is decreasing dramatically. And in recent months, the Russian army has faced a staff shortage for the first time. Russia has a mobilization plan, and according to it, almost a 10% shortage was recorded."
New Conscription Efforts in Russia
On Dec. 19, 2023, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to increase the number of armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers.
Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Lieutenant General Ivan Havryliuk said on March 18 that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin would hold a new wave of conscription after the sham elections and intensify attacks on the frontline. Ukrainian military intelligence also believed that after the presidential "elections" in Russia, mobilization might be more openly conducted.
British intelligence estimated on March 30 that Russia conscripts about 30,000 new soldiers every month for the war against Ukraine.
Russia announced another spring conscription on April 1, which for the first time will be held under new rules regarding the age of conscripts — now from 18 to 30 years. By July 15, it planned to recruit 150,000 conscripts for service. Analysts at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War believe that this process may be connected with hidden conscription in Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on April 3 that Russia was preparing to start an additional conscription of 300,000 people by June 1, 2024.
The British Defense Intelligence reported on July 16 that the Russian government is implementing an "information exchange system" between the Ministry of Defense and the FSB to transfer data on potential recruits and prevent them from fleeing the country.
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