Maia Sandu seeks second term as Russia tries to thwart Moldova's EU referendum
Moldova will hold presidential elections, with current President Maia Sandu seeking a second term, alongside a referendum on the country's constitutional direction toward joining the European Union on Oct. 20.
In addition to Maia Sandu, 11 candidates are running for president, but Russia remains a significant shadow player attempting to disrupt Moldova's European integration efforts.
NV highlights the importance of the October 20 referendum and elections, not only for Moldova but for the entire region, and examines Russia's attempts to influence the outcomes.
Moldovan presidential elections: Will Maia Sandu be re-elected for a second term?
Moldova's pro-Western trajectory has strengthened significantly since Maia Sandu became the country's first female president in late 2020. The following year, her Action and Solidarity (PAS) party secured more than 50% of the vote, gaining a majority in parliament and further empowering Moldova's Western-oriented democratic forces.
Under her leadership, the current government supports closer ties with Western nations, and in June 2024, Brussels officially began negotiations for EU membership with both Ukraine and Moldova.
Sandu has condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, stating, "Moldovans have never been on the side of murderers and will never be on the side of murderers. We condemn Russia's aggression against Ukraine from the first day of the war," in 2023. She has consistently emphasized that Moldova feels relatively secure largely due to Ukraine's resistance against Russian forces.
In recent years, the Moldovan government's efforts have been hampered by an energy crisis, as the Kremlin-controlled Gazprom cut gas supplies to the country by one-third and demanded more than a twofold price increase. This move was widely viewed as political retribution for Sandu's pro-Western stance. Additionally, Russia's war against Ukraine has exacerbated Moldova's financial challenges, as reported by The Guardian.
Now, in the presidential elections, Sandu aims to secure her second term and uphold Moldova's pro-Western direction. Current polls show her with a solid lead, garnering about 36.1% support, according to CBS-AXA. Her closest competitors are Alexander Stoianoglo, the former prosecutor general backed by the pro-Russian Socialist Party at 10.1%, and Renato Usatiy, the former mayor of Bălți, with 7.5% support.
If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote in the first round, a runoff will occur on November 3. While this scenario is likely, experts predict Sandu will ultimately win and continue her pro-Western reforms and efforts to secure Western funding, according to Reuters.
However, if Sandu's support falls short of expectations, it could impact her Action and Solidarity party's popularity ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 2025, where they aim to maintain their majority.
Referendum coinciding with elections: what it is and why it matters
In May 2024, the Moldovan parliament, where President Maia Sandu's ruling Action and Solidarity (PAS) party holds the majority, scheduled a referendum to coincide with the presidential election on October 20. Citizens will vote on whether to enshrine Moldova's European Union membership aspirations in the constitution.
If a majority votes "yes," the constitution will reference the irreversibility of Moldova's European path and include a chapter on European integration. This chapter will outline the rules for the country's accession to the EU's founding treaties and establish the priority of EU law over Moldova's internal legislation in cases of conflict.
Throughout the election campaign, Sandu, who initiated the referendum and announced it at the end of 2023, has urged citizens to support these constitutional changes. A recent CBS-AXA survey indicated that about 63% of voters are prepared to back her call and vote "yes." However, to be valid, the referendum requires participation from at least one-third of voters.
Opposition critics, including those from the pro-Russian faction, have accused Sandu of politicizing the referendum to bolster her chances in the elections. Alexander Stoianoglo, Sandu's main rival from the pro-Kremlin Socialist Party, described the referendum as "a very cynical step." In contrast to the pro-Western stance of the Moldovan government, some political groups have launched campaigns to boycott the referendum or vote "no."
Russian intervention attempts
Moscow maintains about 1,500 troops in Transnistria, an unrecognized region of Moldova controlled by pro-Russian separatists since the early 1990s. Transnistria has been a constant source of tension for Moldova, which recently announced plans to hold a referendum on its attitude toward the European Union.
In the months leading up to the October 20 referendum and presidential elections in Moldova, disinformation campaigns and financial manipulation have become key tools for the Kremlin’s attempts to influence the outcomes.
Moldovan government estimates indicate that Russia has sent at least €100 million to support these efforts. In October, Moldova’s national police chief, Viorel Chernauțan, accused pro-Russian oligarch Ilan Shor, currently in exile, of directing about $15 million from Moscow to bribe more than 130,000 Moldovans to vote against the EU movement in the referendum and for pro-Kremlin candidates in the elections. Chernauțan labeled this operation as an “unprecedented, direct attack” and claimed it formed part of a complex vote-buying scheme. Shor was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison for embezzling $1 billion from Moldovan banks about a decade ago and fled to Israel before moving to Moscow, where he established a political movement aimed at destabilizing the government in Chișinău. The Pobeda bloc, financed by Shor, attempted to nominate a parliamentary member, Vasyl Bolya, for the presidential election, but Bolya was disqualified from participating.
The Guardian reported instances where Chernauțan accused Russia and Shor of interference. In spring 2024, thanks to intelligence warnings, Moldovan customs intercepted over 100 passengers arriving from Russia via Armenia, each carrying just under €10,000 in cash — the threshold for mandatory declaration. In one night, customs seized more than €900,000 at Chișinău airport.
Moldovan officials claimed these cash-carrying couriers were part of a scheme to fund anti-government protests and buy votes for the October 20 election, led by Shor and linked to the Kremlin.
In June 2024, the U.S., U.K., and Canada accused Russia of conspiring to interfere in the presidential elections and the EU membership referendum during a joint statement at the G7 summit in Italy. The statement claimed pro-Moscow activists were attempting to incite public discontent toward President Maia Sandu, Western governments, and Moldova's EU membership prospects.
Washington, London, and Ottawa also accused Russia of actively using disinformation and propaganda through online, broadcast, and street campaigns. They warned that Moscow might incite mass protests in Moldova if its campaign fails and Sandu wins the election and the referendum on October 20.
Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, also reported signs of disinformation campaigns targeting Moldova ahead of the elections. In October, it removed fake accounts undermining the country’s pro-Western stance. According to Meta, these accounts criticized Sandu and other pro-European politicians while promoting pro-Russian parties among Russian-speaking Moldovans.
“Although the people behind this activity tried to hide their identity and coordination, our investigation revealed connections to individuals in Russia and Moldova operating from the Transnistrian region, as well as links to a network in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region of Ukraine, which was removed in December 2020,” Meta stated.
Meanwhile, Moldovan authorities blocked dozens of Telegram channels and chatbots connected to a voter bribery campaign aimed at opposing the referendum. Reports indicated that 15 channels and 95 chatbots linked to Ilan Shor were blocked.
A few days before the referendum, Sandu emphasized that Moldova is at a critical juncture, saying, “We are at a crossroads, and our duty is to protect democracy and decide the fate of Moldova and our children, because there will be no second round of the referendum.”
“Either we will remain a weak and lonely state, or Moldova will become strong, safe, and have many friends,” she added. Sandu also pointed to attempts by pro-Russian forces to influence the referendum, stating that “groups of thieves want to block the future of Moldova with lies and dirty money. Millions of euros to buy votes, thousands of lying words every day, but Moldovans are wise and do not accept that others tell us how to live. We are not selling our future; we are obliged to win, let the will of the people win, not dirty money.”
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