Moscow one mistake away from triggering forceful NATO response — CNN
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REUTERS/Ints Kalnins
Russia’s hybrid attacks against Europe are intended to stay
just below an imagined threshold for a kinetic response from NATO,
meaning that a misstep could lock the Kremlin into an armed conflict against
the West, CNN reported
on Sept. 17.
“Since late Sunday, a railway on which top former Western officials were traveling has been attacked by a Russian drone, another drone of likely Russian origin has been shot down in Lithuania, a third has washed up on Polish shores, a Danish helicopter has narrowly been missed by a Russian flare, and Dutch trains have been paralyzed by an as-yet unclaimed act of sabotage,” the network summarized the escalatory incidents of recent days.
“None of this is by accident. And it comes after weeks of warnings Moscow would seek to escalate with NATO — but perhaps not because it seeks or can afford a full-on conflict with the largest military alliance in history.”
CNN says Russia continues to carry out acts of sabotage, violate borders, and prepare operations that, in the past, could have prompted a much stronger response from European countries. Now, according to a European diplomat, such incidents are gradually becoming almost routine.
“What’s happening now would have triggered NATO’s Article 4 just a few months ago,” the diplomat told CNN.
Article 4 calls for consultations among allies when the security, territorial integrity, or political independence of any member state is threatened.
The diplomat said Russia seeks to “scare Europe away from supporting Ukraine” and is exploiting fears of escalation.
At the same time, CNN warned that the current situation could be only the beginning of further escalation.
“At some point, Moscow will misfire, overstep and oblige a
NATO member to respond with force in some way,” the report said.
“But when Russia’s misstep occurs, the jump-step in
confrontation that it will bring is one NATO’s military and public are not
ready for. It is likely closer by the day.”
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