New invasion from Belarus more likely next spring, Ukraine says
According to official data, there are 10 thousand mobilized Russian servicemen on the territory of Belarus. (Photo:Ministry of Defense of Belarus)
While the risk of another Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus remains low, it could become more likely next spring, Armed Forces of Ukraine spokesman Yevhen Silkin told Ukrainian TV broadcasters on Oct. 19.
“The probability of a repeated invasion of Ukraine is very low, but cannot be completely discounted,” said Silkin.
“According to our assessment, the enemy won’t be able to accumulate enough forces for a second offensive before the end of this year. But in the spring, the threat can increase significantly,” he said.
Silkin noted there are 10,000 mobilized Russian servicemen in Belarus. Russia has also recently deployed 170 tanks, 200 armored fighting vehicles and 100 mortars there.
Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced on Oct. 10 that Minsk and Moscow had agreed to deploy a regional group of troops. According to him, the formation of the new force is already underway.
Lukashenko said that the Armed Forces of Belarus would form the core of the joint force. At the same time, he ordered to accommodate “more than 1,000” Russian soldiers across Belarus.
Belarusian news outlet later Nasha Niva reported that Lukashenko decided to begin covert mobilization in Belarus. The Belarusian parliament voted to introduce new restrictions on citizens leaving the country, on Oct. 13.
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