Putin creating conditions to invade NATO-aligned Baltic states, ISW analysis
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to show that Russia is not interested in serious peace negotiations with Ukraine and remains steadfast in its aggressive intentions towards the Baltic countries, according to a new report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated Jan. 16.
Putin remains undeterred in his goals to see the complete capitulation of Ukraine and the West, the ISW noted.
“Ukrainian statehood could face a grave and irreversible impact” should the existing conditions on the battlefield persist, said Putin during a meeting with Russian municipal heads on Jan.16.
Putin has intensified long-standing Kremlin efforts to create an informational basis for future escalation against the Baltic countries, likely as part of his broader attempts to weaken NATO, ISW said.
Latvia and other Baltic countries are ‘throwing out [ethnic] Russians,” and this “directly affects [Russia's] security,” Putin claimed on Jan. 16.
Recent changes to Latvia's immigration laws mean that Russian citizens' permanent residency permits were invalidated in September 2023. Russians had to undergo the general procedure for obtaining EU permanent resident status in Latvia, including passing a Latvian language exam by Nov. 30, 2023.
Latvia's Citizenship and Migration Affairs Office announced in December 2023 that it would deport about 1,200 Russian citizens who did not apply for a new residence permit by the deadline.
Putin has long used an “expanded” definition of Russian sovereignty and downplayed the sovereignty of states that were once Soviet republics, ISW said. Moscow consistently claims the supposed right to protect its “compatriots abroad,” including ethnic Russians and Russian speakers outside Russia's borders.
There are no signs right now that a Russian attack against the Baltic countries is inevitable or likely, ISW said, adding that Putin may be creating the conditions for Russia's future aggressive actions abroad under the guise of protecting “compatriots.”
Putin threatened Finland in mid-December 2023 and reiterated statements demonstrating his desire to achieve changes in NATO that would dismantle the Alliance.
Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022 not to protect Russia from NATO threats but to weaken and ultimately destroy NATO, a goal he continues to pursue, the ISW reported earlier.
The Kremlin and Kremlin-affiliated actors have recently promoted information operations and conducted hybrid warfare tactics aimed at destabilizing NATO and may now be setting information conditions for possible future aggressive Russian actions against NATO countries and their neighbors, ISW concluded.
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