Putin plans war through 2027 as Kremlin weighs covert mobilization tactics
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool via REUTERS)
Several Russian economists and members of the country’s
political elite are urging Vladimir Putin not to announce another mobilization,
warning that it could rupture the Kremlin’s tacit bargain with the public.
Instead, the Kremlin is considering covert coercive measures
to increase the number of people signing military service contracts with the
Russian Defense Ministry, Andriy Kovalenko said on Aug. 17.
Kovalenko heads the Center for Countering Disinformation
under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.
Putin personally favors mobilization, Kovalenko said, but
announcing it would shatter the understanding between the authorities and the
public that the war remains distant and that frontline service is largely left
to volunteers motivated by pay.
Putin has no intention of ending the war, Kovalenko added.
“Putin does not want to end the war until at least 2028 and
is already making war plans for all of 2027,” he said. “Not everyone supports
those ambitions, and a window of opportunity to influence Moscow still
remains.”
Kovalenko identified pressure on Russia’s economy and
continued EU support for Ukraine as two ways to influence the Kremlin.
“And all of that depends on the resolve of the United States
and China,” he added.
The room for maneuver is limited, but the situation is not
hopeless, Kovalenko said.
Ukraine must preserve its internal unity because Russia will
devote substantial resources not only to the battlefield but also to
information and political operations, he warned.
Moscow will try to bankroll potential political projects in
Ukraine and recruit suitable leaders for them, Kovalenko added.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on July 26
that Putin was preparing another mobilization for the fall.
The Russian Defense Ministry had recruited 221,000 contract
soldiers since the beginning of the year, Zelenskyy said. That figure fell
short of Russia’s reported losses over the same period, which reached 225,500
personnel, including 131,000 killed.
Zelenskyy believes Putin will announce mobilization after
the State Duma elections on Sept. 20 and could send 300,000–500,000 people to
the front.
“He wants to step up mobilization,” Zelenskyy said. “Not
openly, because he is afraid of his own society, but he will do it in early
October unless we create problems for him with logistics, weapons, gasoline and
diesel, and unless our partners impose total sanctions over his aggression.”
Putin will stop fighting only if he is defeated, Zelenskyy
added.
On Aug. 8, Zelenskyy said Putin was looking for a way to
conduct a covert mobilization without formally announcing it. The Kremlin also
continues to involve North Korea in its war against Ukraine.
On Aug. 11, Zelenskyy said Ukraine’s HUR military
intelligence agency had confirmed that Russia was preparing an autumn
mobilization after what he described as sham parliamentary elections.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said any
future Russian mobilization would be Putin’s “personal decision.”
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