Russia has no need for broad mobilization yet, analyst says
REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova
Moscow will not declare full-scale mobilization after September
elections
to the State Duma, Russian political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky told NV
Radio on July 28.
Preobrazhensky said he is skeptical that a major mobilization wave is in the cards. He argued that Russian authorities are currently supplying enough fighters to the front through volunteer contracts and other means and are increasingly pressuring people to sign up. In some cases, he said, enlistment results from coercion; in others, people sign up after losing businesses or livelihoods.
He noted that the 2022 decree dictator Vladimir Putin used to announce an earlier mobilization remains in force, so the Kremlin does not need to enact new legislation now.
Preobrazhensky added that the Kremlin plans to conduct the State Duma vote under a strict script it does not want to disrupt, despite problems such as fuel shortages, growing public discontent, and difficulties in Crimea. For that reason, he said, officials are unlikely to publicly announce a new, large mobilization this fall unless they are certain it is essential for an immediate military victory.
He conceded that some in the Russian military leadership favor declaring mobilization, but he said Putin’s economic advisers strongly oppose it. Instead, Preobrazhensky said, authorities will continue a “creeping” mobilization that has been ongoing, possibly raising its scale somewhat, but they are unlikely to make a public announcement because of the unpopularity of the move and the risk of mass protests.
On July 26, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
said Putin plans a new mobilization this fall and predicted it could follow
Duma elections on Sept. 20, possibly sending 300,000 to 500,000 people to the
front.
The military war may be swinging in our favor, but the information war continues.
Just as an army needs soldiers, so does a free society need its journalists to ensure that people have access to honest, trustworthy voices to understand the world around them.
For the past five years, The New Voice of Ukraine has been working tirelessly to push back against Russian narratives and defend democracy. But we cannot do it alone.
Please consider supporting us on Patreon for just $5 a month – your donation does directly to supporting journalists and ensuring that this front of the infowar says solid and defended.
Thank you.
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Google News
