Russia needs 2 more years to take Donetsk Oblast, experts say
Ukrainian soldiers move Grad multiple rocket launchers near the town of Chasiv Yar (Photo: Oleg Petrasiuk/Press Service of the 24th King Danylo Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces)
Russian forces would need at least two more years to fully capture Donetsk Oblast at current offensive rates, with the main future battle expected to unfold in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, co-founders of the DeepStateUA monitoring project Ruslan Mykula and Roman Pohorilyi said during a special session of the Kyiv Security Forum, news agency Ukrinform reported on Feb. 6.
"78% of Donetsk Oblast is currently occupied by the enemy. How quickly can the Russians occupy Donetsk Oblast?" Mykula said.
“It should be noted that before the full-scale invasion, the Russians controlled 32.3% of the region's territory. In 2022, the enemy captured another 24.4% of the region. From 2023 to the present, 21.8%. Currently, 21.5% of the region remains under the control of the armed forces. If we take the pace of 2025, which is indicative, it will take the enemy at least 742 days, or about two years, to occupy Donetsk Oblast completely.”
Many analysts had predicted Pokrovsk would fall by the New Year, yet Ukrainian forces continue to hold the city’s northern outskirts and those of Myrnohrad.
Russia has concentrated more than 100,000 troops in the area — its largest grouping — but has been unable to capture these settlements or break through Ukrainian defenses.
"If we talk about further developments, then when the relevant settlements fall, and they (Russian troops — ed.) will sooner or later capture them, since the Russians have significant potential for this, they will move deeper into Donetsk Oblast," said the co-founder of DeepStateUA.
The aggressor’s main target will be Ukrainian logistics in order to stop further movement to other cities where the main battle for the region will take place. According to analysts' forecasts, this battle will take place in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Russia is currently testing the weak points of the Ukrainian defense, the speakers added.
"We predict at least two years of fighting, during which they will lose a huge amount of manpower, equipment, and other resources," the experts concluded.
Situation in Donetsk Oblast
On Jan. 8, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that Ukrainian forces controlled the northern part of Pokrovsk and were stopping Russian advances in Myrnohrad.
On Jan. 16, the Air Assault Forces reported that Russia had massed more than ten units around Myrnohrad to block Ukrainian logistics from all directions and encircle Ukrainian troops.
On Jan. 19, DeepState reported that Russian infantry continued to accumulate in Pokrovsk, absorbing the city, entrenching and forming positions according to the terrain.
The 7th Air Assault Corps noted that Ukrainian counteractions prevented direct assaults on the village of Hryshyne.
On Jan. 27, the Air Assault Forces said Russian troops were intensifying pressure on Myrnohrad’s northern part, with firefights ongoing in the city center.
On Feb. 3, DeepState reported that Russian forces were increasing pressure on Pokrovsk by bringing in more equipment and drones, while Myrnohrad remained under constant enemy fire control. Ukrainian forces were struggling to hold positions, but fighting for both cities remained extremely difficult, the analysts said.
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