What to expect in next NABU tapes and key questions that remain for the president — interview with Shabunin

18 November, 03:44 PM

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Vitalii Shabunin (Photo: Anti-Corruption Action Center)

— We see the president of Ukraine in Paris signing a major contract related directly to Ukrainian defense. Before that, he was in Greece. Given the scandal that erupted in Ukraine after what has been dubbed “Mindichgate”, how do you think this could affect the way other countries receive President Zelenskyy?

— It will all depend on his next steps. I think he made the first right moves — a little late, and again under public pressure rather than of his own will — but he did make them. That gave us, as a country, a real chance to save face internationally.

The major media coverage, even though it mentioned the corruption tied to the president’s inner circle, also noted that he took the appropriate steps for that moment in time.

Now, that’s no longer enough, but at the time, those steps were necessary. That saved us. I hope he continues to make the right moves — and this time, on time.

— What do you mean when you say that’s no longer enough? What are you referring to?

— For example, today there was a parliamentary investigative commission hearing on this entire story, and the director of the Anti-Corruption Bureau made it very clear that NABU is facing serious problems in obtaining information from the State Financial Monitoring Service — essentially Ukraine’s financial intelligence unit. This agency has access to all banking transactions and receives the same kind of data from international partners. NABU can only access those transactions through the State Financial Monitoring Service. And instead of helping, that service obstructed efforts to trace the transactions of key figures in the Mindichgate case.

The financial monitoring service is headed by someone not in Zelenskyy’s innermost circle, but certainly within his second — Mr. [Philip] Pronin. Pronin became known for his time as head of the Poltava Oblast Administration, when lawmaker [Yaroslav] Zheleznyak and several investigative journalists exposed a scheme under his leadership that saw 200 million hryvnias stolen from fortification construction in Donetsk Oblast. Despite that scandal, Pronin was calmly appointed to lead the financial monitoring agency — which then withheld information from NABU.

So, here’s the next step for the president: What will he do with Pronin still heading that agency?

Another episode is just as critical. That money-laundering apartment owned by the family of FSB agent [Andrii] Derkach — who is now a Russian Federation Council senator — is located five buildings away from the office of SBU chief [Vasyl] Maliuk. I’m not joking — five buildings. I don’t know how much of that block the SBU physically controls. But how that apartment, used to launder $100 million, went unnoticed is hard to imagine.

And it gets worse. The political wing of the SBU let two of Derkach’s men into top positions at Energoatom. One of them — [Justice Minister Herman] Halushchenko — became a member of the National Security and Defense Council, with full access to all national security data, including state secrets. That clearance was granted by the political arm of the SBU. So the second question for the president is: What will he do with this politicized SBU?

Let me remind you, NABU detective [Ruslan] Magamedrasulov — one of the key operatives behind the Mindich tapes — is still sitting in pre-trial detention. He’s about to enter his fifth month there.

So the real question is: What will Zelenskyy do about the top people around him who keep showing up in the Mindich tapes? Because it seems to me we haven’t heard them all yet.

The next batch, I believe, is coming this week. [Former Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii] Chernyshov has already been served a new charge for illicit enrichment. Just to remind you, he allegedly received $1.2 million in cash from that laundering office. If I understand the logic correctly, those are the funds he used to build four homes on insanely expensive land outside Kyiv — one for himself, one for Mindich, and the other two are still in question. At the Anti-Corruption Action Center, we’re fairly confident the third one belongs to [Andriy] Yermak.

We hope to learn more during Chernyshov’s pre-trial detention hearing, which I believe is scheduled for sometime this week. So yes, this story is very much ongoing. And the way Zelenskyy responds to this new wave of revelations — even just to the facts already public — will shape how the West chooses to engage with him going forward.

— Today, Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a lawmaker from the Holos party, published a new video on his YouTube channel. It’s focused entirely on the head of the President’s Office, Andriy Yermak. Zheleznyak calls him “Ali Baba.” I actually watched the video, and with all due respect to Zheleznyak, I didn’t see any point in the already released NABU recordings where Yermak is mentioned by name. But in his analysis, Zheleznyak lays out how Mindich and the president’s chief of staff were likely connected. He even goes so far as to argue that appointments like the ones we’ve seen simply couldn’t have happened without Yermak knowing about them. Among other things, he calls for Yermak’s dismissal. Do you think we’ll see anything like that happen?

— If I recall correctly, Yermak’s name hasn’t come up, at least in the tapes that have been made public so far.

— Right, there was nothing like that in what we’ve seen.

— Exactly. So here’s the discussion. But where Zheleznyak is absolutely right is this: appointments like those politically couldn’t have happened without Yermak, at the very least, being aware. That’s how Zelenskyy’s power structure is built. Yermak handles domestic politics — fully. And this is about Energoatom.

I agree with Zheleznyak that there’s no way Yermak didn’t know. Is that a criminal offense? No. As of now, there are no criminal charges against him. But if Yermak shows up in the tapes the way Halushchenko did, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to fire him. Otherwise — forgive me — the Ukrainian people will remove him themselves.

Honestly, I’m terrified just imagining the scenario where Yermak appears in the Mindich tapes and Zelenskyy refuses to let him go. That would be a disaster. It would destroy Zelenskyy’s standing abroad, and Ukrainians wouldn’t forgive it either. So if it comes to that, I truly hope Zelenskyy fires him. But again — as of now, there’s no reason to talk about that yet, at least not based on the Mindich case.

— Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council has imposed sanctions on Tymur Mindich and Oleksandr Zukerman. We’re seeing this tool of sanctions being used again. But here’s something unusual: while most NSDC sanctions last for 10 years, these were imposed for only three. Also, the sanctions were applied to Israeli citizens — Mindich and Zukerman both hold Israeli passports. One thing remains unclear, though: if their guilt hasn’t been proven in court, what does it mean that they’ve already been sanctioned? What’s your view on the use of this tool?

— That’s a tough one. If you’ll allow, I’d prefer not to comment just yet. This isn’t a criminal trial — it’s highly political. I’ll be in a better position to judge the sincerity and effectiveness of these sanctions in a few weeks.

I think the Mindich tapes saga is far from over. Right now, what interests me most isn’t even Yermak — although, yes, that’s significant, given his role as the architect of this political structure. What I’m really watching is the defense angle in those recordings.

Because if the defense-related content in the tapes turns out to match what the prosecutor hinted at in court, then the sanctions against Mindich — who is linked to several defense firms, at least one for certain — will take on an entirely new dimension. So with your permission, I’ll hold off on commenting about the sanctions for now.

— We’re seeing another revealing aspect of this whole case. We all understand the messaging from media outlets controlled by the President’s Office. It started off with a tired, familiar script: the investigators from NABU and SAPO, and the journalists reporting on the case — they’re all Russian agents. Then the rhetoric shifted, but not by much. The new spin? This is all the work of Donald Trump and the White House — they’re allegedly trying to overthrow President Zelenskyy with this investigation because he won’t cut a deal with Russia. The implication being: never mind that hundreds of millions were stolen — what really matters is that someone in America is supposedly trying to topple Ukraine’s principled president. What does that kind of messaging say to you?

— It tells me the people running communications at the President’s Office are idiots — excuse my bluntness. I’m a sergeant, just got promoted, so I can afford to speak plainly.

So let me get this straight: Donald Trump forced Zelenskyy to hand over Ukraine’s nuclear energy sector to Derkach’s people? To individuals who were long-time aides to Derkach — a man who, let me remind you, has been officially recognized as an FSB agent by both Ukraine and the United States? Derkach, who now sits in the Russian Federation Council? Trump orchestrated this elaborate scheme to make Zelenskyy hand control of Ukraine’s atomic energy to the FSB just to corner himself later on? Come on. Do these people still have any brain cells left?

Let me remind Maliuk and Prosecutor General Kravchenko of something fundamental: Dear comrades of Zelenskyy, back in July you stood in front of a press conference and accused NABU of Russian ties based on a claim that one detective was supposedly planning to sell cannabis in Russia. Meanwhile, just five buildings away from Maliuk’s office, $100 million was laundered through an apartment owned by an FSB agent. How do you sleep at night?

This circus is absurd. There’s a limit to how much shame people can take.

Mr. Maliuk, Mr. Kravchenko — the least you could do is apologize. And as for this nonsense about Russians or Americans forcing someone’s hand — how about just not stealing? Try that. You’ll find communications become a whole lot easier.

— We also remember that the FBI supposedly plays a role here. NABU has a cooperation memorandum with the FBI. It’s clear why that’s important — and I assume similar agreements exist with European agencies and others. Because when we’re talking about Ukrainian corruption, it’s obvious those involved don’t usually keep the money inside Ukraine — they move it abroad, often to democracies like those in Europe or America. What’s your understanding of the FBI’s role in Mindichgate?

— The FBI has already taken one of the players in this scheme into custody. I don’t even know what for, and honestly, I think they did it even before the tapes went public or any procedural actions began. I have no idea, and it’s the last thing I care about.

But here’s what I do care about: the State Financial Monitoring Service, which is legally obligated to provide NABU with transaction data — including foreign transactions. How does this system work? There’s the law enforcement framework of each country, and then there’s the global network of financial intelligence units. Their cooperation is tightly regulated.

So when NABU says, “Dear Financial Monitoring Service, dear Pronin, give us the transaction trail for the Mindich network all the way to Cyprus, to the last offshore account,” Ukrainian financial intelligence is supposed to provide that. Because foreign partners automatically share that information with them upon request.

My issue isn’t with the FBI — it’s with Zelenskyy and his man Pronin. Why the hell were you hiding financial data on Mindich and his companies from Ukraine’s own law enforcement and prosecution?

— I see what you’re getting at. NABU gave us a comment — it wasn’t public — but what the detectives and NABU leadership are saying is that the FBI didn’t play a central role. They used some of the FBI’s information, yes, but suggesting the FBI initiated this whole case would diminish the credit due to Ukrainian detectives.

— Technically speaking, the core set of intelligence — both operational and initial — came from wiretaps installed in the laundering office and in the back offices used in the scheme. FBI agents don’t operate like that here. It wasn’t FBI operatives who planted the bugs — that was NABU. And the information about the back-office operations didn’t come from the FBI either, because they don’t work on that kind of tactical level in Ukraine.

I’ll be blunt: I’ve always respected the U.S. justice system. But right now, the FBI doesn’t exactly look capable of investigating the inner circle of a sitting president. Meanwhile, NABU and SAPO aren’t just investigating — they’re filing formal charges. That’s something Ukrainians can truly be proud of.

— There was a meeting today of the Verkhovna Rada’s temporary investigative commission on economic security. A number of officials were invited, including Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko. From what I understand, she wasn’t able to attend. What do you expect from this track? What impact can this commission actually have?

— Right now, the main task for society — and that includes this commission — is not to let the issue get buried, not to let it get diluted by some nonsense about rebooting supervisory boards or running audits. No. The focus must remain squarely on President Zelenskyy’s actions regarding his top officials named in the investigation.

So the commission’s role is the same as that of NV, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia, or the Anti-Corruption Action Center: to keep this topic in the spotlight and make sure it doesn’t disappear. Because the moment it gets even slightly buried, we can expect a new assault from Zelenskyy’s team on NABU and SAPO, aiming to shut down this investigation — and likely any future ones that follow.

— We last spoke a week ago, just as the first Mindichgate materials were starting to emerge — allegations of embezzlement at Energoatom. I asked for your forecast then about how the president and his office might react. You sounded pretty pessimistic, or maybe just realistic. You said to expect attacks on NABU and SAPO. There’s been speculation for a while now that SAPO chief Oleksandr Klymenko might be served a notice of suspicion. A week has passed. Has your forecast changed? Right now, the Office is focused on putting out the fire. But what happens after the fire? What’s your prediction now, based on the new information that’s surfaced this week?

— Zelenskyy’s logic is already clear, especially in this case. It’s the same playbook he used back in July: first, he does whatever he wants — specifically, he tries to crush NABU and SAPO — and only afterward gauges the public reaction. If the backlash is strong, he stops.

That’s exactly what happened in July, and that’s what’s happening now. After the scandal broke, Zelenskyy did nothing specific in the morning — just announced the temporary suspension of ministers. Only after seeing how fierce the reaction was by the afternoon did he announce their dismissal.

We’ll see the same pattern here. As long as public scrutiny remains intense, there won’t be any attacks on NABU or SAPO — because that would be political suicide, not just for Zelenskyy but for the Ukrainian state. What happens next depends on continued public attention, on how Ukrainians respond, and on what NABU does.

— We’ll see how things unfold. Obviously, how sharp public focus remains depends on how events develop — especially in court. At the President’s Office, at least according to our sources, they were confident at first that there was no real evidence. They even pushed that narrative through pro-presidential Telegram channels. Has the mood changed?

— I have no idea what’s going on inside the heads of people at the President’s Office. And after reading their Telegram posts, I don’t even want to imagine what’s in there. Honestly, it feels like absolute chaos in those heads — and that’s the most frightening part.

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