U.S. intelligence warns Putin could attack NATO country as early as fall
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (Photo: Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS)
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s
commitment to collective defense with an attack on one of its members sometime
between this fall and 2029, The
Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 6, citing U.S. intelligence
assessments.
U.S. officials are weighing scenarios ranging from
cyberattacks and hybrid operations to a limited incursion into a NATO country
on the alliance’s eastern flank.
Officials also pointed to actions Russia has already taken
that may be intended to test NATO’s response, including Russian cruise missiles
falling on Polish territory and drones entering Romania.
U.S. officials previously believed Russia would not risk
attacking a NATO country while its war against Ukraine continued. They revised
that assessment this year as pressure on the Kremlin mounted on the battlefield
and at home. Ukrainian drones have carried out significant strikes on Russian
military and oil facilities, while heavy losses have slowed Russian advances.
U.S. officials believe Moscow’s main goal in any attack on a
NATO country would be not to seize territory but to undermine alliance unity
and test whether allies would honor their collective-defense commitments.
U.S. intelligence believes such threats could materialize
between this fall and 2029. A limited ground incursion is considered the least
likely scenario because it could trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic
Treaty. Cyberattacks, sabotage or operations by unidentified armed groups are
seen as more plausible because NATO’s response to such threats is less clearly
defined, the Journal reported.
Russian provocation threat — what we know
Polish Foreign Intelligence Agency chief Col. Pawel Szota
said on June 28 that Russia was prepared to send “little green men” into the
Baltic states. Szota said Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is now trapped by his
own defeat and that Russia could therefore continue fighting in Ukraine for
several more years while carrying out hybrid attacks against NATO’s eastern
flank.
Lithuania’s Defense Ministry offered a somewhat different
assessment on June 29. In comments cited by Lithuanian broadcaster LRT, the
ministry said there were no objective signs that Russia was preparing a
full-scale military attack on the Baltic states.
The United States warned Warsaw that Moscow was preparing an
armed provocation on Polish territory, Britain’s The Telegraph reported on July
3, citing sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki. Such an operation
could be launched from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave or Belarus and could range
from missile and drone strikes to Russian troops crossing the Polish border,
according to the report.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said on July 15
that Russia could be preparing a false-flag operation involving Ukrainian
drones.
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