U.S. security for Europe is over—report
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, Alaska, Aug. 15, 2025 (Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)
The era in which Europe could flourish for decades under a U.S. security umbrella has ended, just as Russia aims to further destabilize the region, according to a Munich Security Conference report published on Feb. 9.
The second Trump administration has signaled a major shift in Washington’s foreign policy. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told NATO allies on Feb. 12, 2025, that European security must become a priority for NATO members on the continent. Under this doctrine, Europeans are expected to assume “the lion’s share” of both lethal and nonlethal military aid to Ukraine.
The report adds that U.S. military assistance has dropped sharply since January 2025 and that Washington is increasingly using security as a tool of economic coercion, tying defense guarantees to trade concessions from the EU.
As the United States recedes into the background, Kremlin aggression is on the rise. Russia has shifted its entire economy to a wartime footing, spending 40% of its federal budget on defense. Analysts say Moscow has not abandoned its maximalist goals in Ukraine and is preparing for new armed conflicts. Intelligence estimates suggest Russia could be ready for a regional war in the Baltics within two years of any cease-fire in Ukraine or a localized war against one neighbor within six months.
The report notes that Russia has already stepped up its hybrid warfare campaign in Europe, including sabotage of energy grids and airspace violations over Poland and Estonia in September 2025.
European capitals were particularly alarmed by the initial 28-point U.S.-backed peace plan that surfaced in November 2025. The proposal largely ignored European interests, called for territorial concessions by Kyiv, limited the size of Ukraine’s armed forces, and ruled out Ukrainian membership in NATO.
The report argues that Washington increasingly acts as an arbiter rather than an ally to Europe. Although European countries have boosted defense budgets by 41%, the report calls their efforts insufficient. Instead of forging a unified EU defense system, capitals have embraced “industrial nationalism,” continuing to purchase U.S. weapon systems such as the F-35 and Patriot to stay in Washington’s good graces.
The report concludes that further hesitation will leave Europe stranded in a “gray zone” between competing spheres of influence, eroding its ability to chart its own future.
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