Will Putin announce mobilization? OSINT analyst assesses Russia's options
Putin and servicemen of the occupation armed forces participating in the war against Ukraine in the Kremlin. Moscow, Russia, June 12, 2026 (Photo: Sputnik/Vyacheslav Prokofyev/Pool via REUTERS)
OSINT analyst and military observer Vitalii Kononuchenko said on Radio NV that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to announce a new mobilization despite a reported decline in the number of volunteers signing military contracts on June 29.
Vitaly Kononuchenko
“There are essentially three key factors to consider here.
First, the flow of contract recruits is indeed declining. Russia is no longer signing up as many contract soldiers as it was at the same time last year.
Second, one of the reasons recruitment has fallen is that one-time signing bonuses have been cut. In some Russian regions they have been reduced by nearly half, and in others even more. That inevitably affects people’s willingness to be killed by a drone for $500.
Third, Putin’s approval rating, while declining gradually, is certainly not increasing.
Taken together, these three factors suggest there is no clear way out, even in the near term — I would say not even by the end of the year. Even if they announce mobilization this autumn with the aim of launching a winter campaign.
But what about technology? How will they equip those troops? Where are the drone units? Where is the expansion of the Rubikon program, without which Russian advances on the front are now limited? Where is the response to Ukrainian technologies that continue to be used effectively?
Russia still has not solved the problem of losing access to Starlink, which was cut off about six months ago, nor has it found an answer to Ukraine’s operational-level drones. Where is the funding for these critical programs? Without scaling them up, they cannot counter Ukraine’s actions.
We are not seeing another leap in Russia’s military capabilities. At every previous stage of the war, Russia found ways to adapt to Ukrainian technology. As of the end of June, it has not been able to do so.
That raises another question: where is the money for mobilization? Where will the funding come from to put 200,000 additional troops into the field? At a minimum, that is a massive financial burden. If Russia is currently recruiting only 30,000 to 40,000 troops a month, mobilization would require a significant increase. If the target is even higher, there is little point in debating the numbers.
I strongly doubt they will be able to find the necessary funding.”
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