Amid protests over ‘Russian’ law in Georgia, will Putin be tempted to intervene?
The police used force against protesters in the center of Tbilisi: batons, rubber bullets and water cannons. March 7, 2023 (Photo:REUTERS/Irakli Gedenidze)
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may still yet decide to invade Georgia amid the protests in Tbilisi, political analyst Ihor Reiterovych told Radio NV on March 8.
"According to some information coming from Russia, he has such conversations quite regularly," Reiterovych said.
“He has two countries to which he would try to expand the aggressive war he is waging against Ukraine. These are Georgia and Moldova.”
“He thinks that maybe this will divert attention from Ukraine, make the EU and other partners react differently to these processes. Therefore, he could potentially do this.”
The expert said that although Russia's resources are now focused on the war in Ukraine, Putin may have enough strength to still stir up yet another crisis.
"The key point is not even this, but whether Georgia is currently able to resist — to resist both at the military level and, most importantly, at the political level," Reiterovych said.
“This could lead to the Georgian military thinking one way and the government taking a different stance.”
There are no signs at this time that Russia plans to expand its aggression in Georgia, said Reiterovych, while noting the nature of the dynamically developing situation.
"If the processes in Georgia go in the direction of changing the pro-Russian government and it is clear that society will demand this change, Putin may make completely different decisions,” he said.
“These decisions will be made based on tactical rather than strategic considerations… He may transfer certain forces there in order not only to destabilize the situation, but to try to establish control over this country."
The political scientist cautioned that this would require a lot of resources, but believes that Russia could try to assemble them.
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