How three Su-34s were shot down at once and what it means for the front line
Our air defense system shot down only seven Russian aircraft for the entire year. Then, suddenly, at the end of the year, they made a round number – 10.
On December 22 at noon, Ukrainian air defense shot down three Su-34s in the southern direction. This was most likely the work of Patriot systems, as we had received another unit from Germany. If you recall the "Bryansk People's Republic," on May 13, it was a similar situation when two airplanes and three helicopters were shot down almost simultaneously.
Here, we have a situation where the Russians were coming with missiles and bombs. On some days, they were dropping up to 100 cruise missiles (CABs) in the southern direction. Now, three vehicles were flying and were hit all at once. They did not take into account the fact that the Patriot has an aerodynamic range of 160 kilometers. Even if it is placed 70-80 kilometers away from the line of contact, they can still see Russian planes at the height where they drop bombs perfectly.
We don't have a lot of systems, and the Patriot is just the maximum number of bets. We also have SAMP/T, which has a slightly shorter range, 10-15 kilometers, for aerodynamic targets. These systems will move around to whichever areas are most threatened. It will be safer in the south, for sure, because the Russians will now take this into account.
The number of raids with CABs will decrease
Now, they were just coming in masses, dropping 100 bombs daily. They drop these bombs in an assembly line mode. Now, they will carefully prepare each operation and check whether a Patriot is nearby because it has a characteristic electronic signature. They will check carefully and only then launch single aircraft, not in groups as they do now. The number of raids with CABs will decrease because the Russians are reacting very painfully to these losses.
Their production of combat aircraft has dropped this year. The main emphasis is not on the Su-34, but on the Su-35, a fighter jet. Therefore, the Russians will try to minimize the risks during the subsequent raids with the CABs. We will see the reports of the Air Force and the Ground Forces.
If we take the training of six pilots (and each Su-34 has a crew of two, who are officers), it costs about $150 million - the total cost of three aircraft with crews and weapons.
The Russians do not keep their aircraft on the Ukrainian temporarily occupied territories. The Voronezh Regiment, for example, could have participated in this raid. The Morozov Regiment also uses Su-34s. But all of them, without exception, are stationed on the Russian mainland.
This is one of the main points. You see, we have to scare them so that they drastically reduce the number of strikes with these cruise bombs. This is critical now because our ground forces are suffering from this, and we are suffering losses.
For the Russians, these losses are shocking because, during the entire year, our air defense (I'm not talking about what the Russians themselves shot down) shot down only seven Russian planes. And then suddenly, at the end of the year, they made a round number – 10.
I hope we will bring Russian losses to even higher double-digit numbers next year with the help of F-16s.
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