Worst-case scenarios for war. Is there time to change something?
Reports from the frontline are increasingly coming in that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are facing a shortage of shells.
The Pentagon says that Ukraine's military aid funds from the US will run out soon in the absence of another funding bill. The Commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Group of Troops, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, said that the Defense Forces are re-planning some operations due to the lack of assistance from Western allies. How can Ukraine survive in this situation?
The military has well-established planning procedures called capability-based planning. Therefore, planning any future combat actions is based on the capabilities available for this. If we are now in a situation where there is a shortage of supplies (this is approximately since September) and the prospects for these supplies, either from our partners or from our own producers, are not very optimistic, then the logical step is to revise the plans and proceed from what are the capabilities given the various scenarios. What are they?
Tarnavsky's interview with Reuters is primarily about the fact that the General Staff will mainly move to active defense and reduce the activity of offensive operations, even in those areas where they were taking place a month ago.
Czech President Peter Pavel gave his assessment of what is happening. He believes that next year, the Russian-Ukrainian war will see shifts, not for the better for Ukraine and its allies, especially after the US elections. What Pavel said (let me remind you that he is a former high-ranking military official not only in Czechia, but also in NATO) is one possible scenario. A number of scenarios are being developed based on assessing the current situation and analyzing what can happen in the future. But it is not a forecast, that is, it is not something that must necessarily occur. The value of such a scenario development procedure is that decision-makers have an accurate picture of the options.
We have lost a lot of time, but there is still an opportunity to prepare and prevent the worst-case scenarios from developing. The ways to counteract this are known. This is the international community's mobilization to ensure that support does not fall below an absolutely critical level. Also, something that should have been done yesterday or the day before yesterday is to set up our own ammunition production because this scenario was predictable, almost from the first days of the conflict. International aid has certain fluctuation cycles. We can see on the charts how this happened, and we can analyze what factors influenced either the growth of this aid or, on the contrary, its decrease. Unfortunately, many of these factors influence each other, and there are also some unpredictable so-called strategic shocks.
The production and supply of FPV drones could change a lot. This is our traditional problem. With all due respect to volunteers, civil society, and every citizen who donates to the armed forces and various foundations as much as possible, the state remains the primary player. In this case, there are both positive and negative examples. A positive example is the Ministry of Digital Transformation, which has voluntarily taken over the production of drones and is showing quite good results. At the same time, we know about the failures that were made before the large-scale invasion, at the beginning of the large-scale invasion, when they said, "These wedding drones." Someone made big mistakes at some point. We can recognize or discuss this now, but our state must understand that the primary funding source for the war is still the budget. That is why we repeatedly emphasize that our government and top political leadership should not focus on any populist goals but on the main strategic goal of winning the war.
We constantly hear two messages. The first is that the EU's warehouses are empty and that Europe's military-industrial complex is currently unable to meet not only Ukraine's needs but also the promises made at a high level by the EU or individual countries. On the other hand, from time to time, there is evidence that not all the reserves have been used. The Scandinavian countries, at least, can reconsider in the shortest possible time what they can urgently provide to Ukraine from their existing reserves. It is precisely to compensate for the time lag currently observed in providing assistance from the United States. The Scandinavian countries, for example, Norway, are also very powerful financial resources. The amounts we are talking about, while very large in absolute terms, are not that significant as a percentage of their GDP, national funds, or defense budget. That is, the main thing is a political decision on the part of the Scandinavian countries.
General Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that it is necessary to return to the existing framework in terms of mobilization. Obviously, he meant that there is no need to reinvent the wheel. That is, there are proven universal approaches and legal requirements for how mobilization should be carried out in wartime. Recruiting has a right to exist. That is, we cannot rely on mobilization alone. This is also the experience of Ukraine and other countries where comprehensive approaches are used.
We need to clearly understand the motivating or demotivating factors for potential soldiers or people who can take on some function in the rear. The approach should also be based on at least basic assessments and sociological research. It is not enough to say that there is a law and everyone has to follow it. The same potential evader says that the state is not fulfilling its obligations to me, so why should I go to the front? I am not saying he is correct, but I predict this may be the case. General Zaluzhnyi also spoke about the military commissars. There is an impression, and probably not without reason, that all military commissars are corrupt, but these people did their job. They know how to do this job. If you replace a professional even with a decent non-professional, they need time to learn. The same military commissars could and should have set the rules of the game, even if they had problems with the law somewhere. This is how I understand what General Zaluzhnyi said.
We do not see the prospect of a quick end to the war as we need it. One of the options for ending it is what Russia is proposing – surrender and then “denazification” and neutrality. But we must all be aware of the consequences not only for the state, but for every citizen of Ukraine if the war ends quickly. Another realistic prospect is a long struggle. Of course, the brain simply does not perceive our future is years or decades of war of varying intensity. This is one of the scenarios, and we need to do everything to make the worst-case scenario or the second-extreme scenario as unlikely as possible. The only thing left to do is to develop the means to avoid these worst-case scenarios. This is where mobilization comes in, and where we work with our foreign partners. By mobilization, I mean not only the mobilization of new fighters, but the mobilization of the state and the nation in a broad sense – starting from the political elite and ending with citizens who have a good time in coffee shops.
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